Rural voters face economic strain as Republicans lose key midterm races

34% of voters said neither party had an affordability solution

Rural voters entered the midterms with a worsening economic outlook, and a Harris Poll conducted for The Guardian found the strain was especially pronounced in areas where driving long distances is routine. Republicans lost toss-up races from Maine to Texas, while Democrats will control Congress for the next two years.

The poll found that 95% of Americans believed during the summer that the country was experiencing an affordability crisis, particularly because of steep gas and grocery prices. By October, 61% of voters believed the country was in a recession, even though it was not in one technically.

Rural voters were more likely than their urban and suburban counterparts to say gas prices were hurting their finances. They also were more likely to describe their economic situation as “survival mode” or to say that one surprise bill could sink them. Rural voters were also slightly more likely than urban and suburban voters to say Republicans had a bigger problem with corruption, or elected officials using their positions for personal financial gain, than Democrats.

In the month before the midterms, the share of rural Americans saying the economy was getting worse climbed 17% since Trump took office. The corresponding increases were 5% among suburban voters and 3% among urban voters.

Republican optimism faded during the same period. In February, just before the war in Iran began, 49% of Republicans said the economy was getting better; by October, that share fell to 28%. The polling also found the worsening outlook among some Republicans, rather than only among Democrats and independents.

The report described how economic pressures affected daily life. Loggers in Maine said tariffs against Canada were hurting their already battered industry. Drivers in Texas who faced three-hour commutes to work were spending $400 a month on gas. Farmers across the midwest said diesel prices were exacerbating a growing season already beleaguered by drought.

On the eve of the midterms, Trump was describing a different economic picture, one in which gas prices were going down, wages were rising and US trade with other countries had never been stronger. At the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool on Monday, he said, “I’ve traveled all across the country, spoken at all of these rallies I’ve done over the last two and a half weeks, and America is ready to go. They’re ready to vote,” and added, “I hope they’re ready to do the right thing.”

Republicans lost key toss-up races from Maine to Texas, and Democrats will control Congress for the next two years. Democrats have promised to focus on the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, corruption in the White House, rising healthcare costs and the economy, specifically higher prices.

JD Vance said on Wednesday that the loss was the “cost to pay” for the Iran war. “Any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there,” he said.

Affordability did not yield a clear partisan solution in the polling. One month before the election, 27% of voters said Democrats had the answer to the affordability crisis and 24% chose Republicans. The largest group, 34%, said neither party had a solution.

Similar polling before the 2024 presidential election found key independent voters just as pessimistic about the economy. The Guardian noted that inflation had reached a generational high in 2022 and that many Americans felt Biden and Democrats were not doing enough.

Price increases under Trump, particularly after the Iran war, have worsened, according to The Guardian, while many voters are dealing with years of economic burnout. The report said voters will expect results in the coming years.