Poll suggests shifts away from GOP among young voters in local House races

Republicans may have lost ground among Hispanic voters in House races

The AP Voter Poll, an expansive survey of about 80,000 voters across all 50 states, suggested that young voters appeared to have swung away from Republicans in local House races and that Republicans may have lost ground among Hispanic voters compared with support for Trump in 2024. About 7 in 10 voters under 30 nationally said they supported the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, compared with about 3 in 10 who said they voted for the Republican candidate. In 2024, the youngest voters were roughly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Republicans were hoping their candidates could hold onto the coalition Trump assembled in the 2024 presidential election. The poll nevertheless suggested the party had lost ground among voters under 30 and may have lost ground among Hispanic voters. The suggested shift among young voters came with a limit on its electoral effect: Only about 1 in 10 voters in the 2026 midterms were under 30.

About half of voters under 30 said they were “angry” about the way things were going in the country, compared with about one-third of voters age 65 and older. Most young voters said their vote was cast to express opposition to Trump. Older voters, who tend to be more conservative in general, were less likely to say they were trying to signal dissatisfaction with the president.

The survey also suggested Republicans may have lost the ground Trump gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, though to a lesser extent than with younger voters. Only about one-third of Hispanic voters said they backed the Republican candidate in their local House race, while roughly 4 in 10 said they voted for Trump two years earlier. About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters nationally said they backed the Democratic candidate in their local House race, and about 7 in 10 said Trump’s policies had worsened economic conditions in the United States.

Trump was not on the ballot, but he remained on many voters’ minds. About 4 in 10 voters wanted “to express opposition” to Trump with their congressional vote, just under 2 in 10 wanted to express support for the president, and roughly 4 in 10 said Trump was not a factor in their decision. The survey highlighted voters’ unhappiness with Trump’s leadership. About 6 in 10 disapproved of his handling of the presidency. Views of Trump’s priorities were mostly negative, and about 6 in 10 said he placed a higher priority on his personal interests than the country’s interests.

Most voters nationally wanted Congress to provide more checks and balances on the presidency. The survey suggests voters want Congress to take on a stronger role as a co-equal branch of government. Roughly 7 in 10 said Congress was doing “not enough” to provide checks and balances; about 2 in 10 said it was doing “about the right amount,” and about 1 in 10 said Congress was doing “too much.”

The demand for stronger checks was not confined to Democrats: the poll found a vast majority of independents and about 4 in 10 Republicans said Congress was not doing enough. About three-quarters of voters disapproved of the way Congress was handling its job.

The economy was a clear concern, with voters expressing alarm over the high cost of gasoline and food. Many voters were also deeply worried about the state of democracy and government corruption, with the two concerns rivaling the economy. About 4 in 10 named the economy as the top issue facing the country, while roughly 3 in 10 named the state of democracy. Only about 1 in 10 gave the same answer for immigration or health care, and few named foreign policy or crime.

Roughly half of voters said government corruption and the cost of living were “crucial” to their congressional vote, a larger share than those who said the same about immigration enforcement policies, the war in Iran or AI data centers.

Those issue choices accompanied clear differences in House voting. Most voters who said government corruption was “crucial” to their congressional vote supported the Democratic candidate, while about 4 in 10 supported the Republican candidate. Among voters who said “the state of democracy” was the country’s top issue, about 8 in 10 supported the Democrat and about 2 in 10 supported the Republican.

The poll found Democrats had at least a small advantage in how voters expected the parties to handle several major issues. Voters were slightly more likely to say Democrats would handle the economy and government corruption better. Democrats also had a small edge on foreign policy and a wider advantage on handling transgender issues and health care. Voters split on which party would better handle artificial intelligence and taxes, while Republicans held a small advantage on immigration.

Despite those issue advantages, the Democratic Party was not much more popular with voters than the Republican Party. Just under half of voters held a “somewhat” or “strongly” favorable view of the Democratic Party, compared with about 4 in 10 who viewed the GOP positively. A significant share of voters said they did not trust either party.

The AP Voter Poll is a survey of the American electorate conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News and Versant. The survey blended probability-based and non-probability-based interviews with registered voters in all 50 states, conducted from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3 in Alaska and Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in all other states. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample.