Pennsylvania and Wisconsin support would require two of three Democratic flips
Democrats won full control of government in six states representing 71 Electoral College votes: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those control changes opened a path for enough states to join 18 other Democratic-run states and brought the compact closer to the 270-vote threshold. The scale of those wins left the compact’s supporters optimistic. Once participating states hold 270 electoral votes, the arrangement would effectively require a presidential candidate to win the national popular vote to obtain an Electoral College majority, remaking the presidential contest around votes nationwide rather than roughly six swing states.
The states already joined to the compact account for 222 Electoral College votes. Minnesota, which has 10 electoral votes, joined in 2023 when it was previously under full Democratic control. If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin supported the compact, just two of the remaining three Democratic flips of Arizona, Michigan and Nevada would be needed to reach 270 and make winning the Electoral College contingent on winning the popular vote.
Wisconsin’s new Democratic Gov. David Crowley said the state could dispense with the Electoral College now that Democrats control the legislature for the first time in 16 years. “We can do away with it,” Crowley said. “I am interested in having those conversations with the state Legislature.”
Over the weekend, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a likely 2028 contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, said he would like the newly Democratic legislature to take steps toward making the Electoral College obsolete. “I think that the national popular vote makes sense. My views on that have not changed,” Shapiro said on a liberal podcast. “I’ll work with lawmakers to figure out what the right mechanism is for moving forward on that.”
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs declined in a Monday television interview to say whether she favored Arizona joining the compact. Based on conversations with voters across Arizona, she said her top-of-mind concerns included addressing affordability, continuing to find ways to lower costs, securing the border, protecting water and continuing to protect public education. Her office declined to comment further. The incoming administration of Nevada Gov. Aaron Ford did not respond to requests for comment, nor did incoming Michigan Gov. Jocelyn Benson.
Nevada’s earlier compact measures did not result in the state joining. In 2019, then-Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak vetoed a measure committing Nevada to the compact after Democratic majorities passed it in both legislative chambers. Sisolak said at the time that the popular-vote idea would diminish the influence of smaller-population states like Nevada in national elections. Democrats passed another measure to join in 2023 but could not find a way around the state’s then-Republican governor.
Under the compact, the candidate who wins the national popular vote would receive the Electoral College votes from participating states. Patrick Rosenstiel, a Republican strategist in Minnesota and senior consultant to the popular-vote movement, said there was nothing inherently partisan about the idea. Republican-majority legislative chambers, including the Oklahoma Senate, have occasionally passed proposals to join, but the bills have not advanced further.
Rosenstiel said his own presidential vote was essentially meaningless because Minnesota had reliably voted Democratic in presidential elections for decades, leaving him without a say in the outcome and steering the vast majority of candidates’ attention elsewhere. “I don’t believe I’ve ever been relevant in the outcome of a presidential election,” he said. “National popular vote forces campaigns to focus on every persuadable voter in every precinct across the nation.”
Rosenstiel said the national popular-vote campaign was accelerating its effort as newly Democratic state legislatures prepared to convene at the start of the year. The organization had already lined up legislative sponsors, but it was not certain that all newly elected governors and lawmakers in the key states supported the strategy.
The proposal gained traction among Democrats after Republican George W. Bush won the 2000 presidential election by edging Democrat Al Gore in the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote. Interest increased further when Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 while also winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote.
Legal challenges from conservative groups are almost certain if the compact advances, and the proposal could reach the Supreme Court as then constituted with a conservative majority. Republicans no longer have the power to block the change in the newly Democratic-controlled states, but that does not guarantee passage or resolve the compact’s separate constitutional and litigation issues. Some conservative groups are prepared to challenge the compact. In September, analysts for the pro-Trump America First Policy Institute wrote that the change “disenfranchises voters in member states if enacted, violates the United States Constitution, and undermines America’s Founders’ intent.”
There is no guarantee the proposals will pass. Derek Muller, a Notre Dame law professor who is skeptical of the compact, said some might have second thoughts now that the proposal has shifted from a symbolic protest vote to a realistic possibility. He separately said the constitutional concerns he identified would likely lead to legal challenges.
The Constitution permits states to run elections, and the Supreme Court ruled in a case stemming from electors who sought to replace Donald Trump in 2016 that states can require electors to vote for the presidential candidate to whom they are pledged. Muller said the Supreme Court might also decide that states cannot join a compact altering one of their core constitutional duties without congressional approval. “I think the Supreme Court will be interested,” Muller said.
Muller flagged several potential legal hurdles to the compact. States have the power to run their elections but cannot set rules that determine outcomes in other states’ contests. State ballots also differ, and some could include third-party candidates who would not appear elsewhere, potentially diluting the power of a vote for a Democratic or Republican ballot in one state compared with another. He said that could violate the 14th Amendment’s requirement that everyone have “equal protection of the laws.”
The compact remains contingent on action by the incoming Democratic governors and legislatures. If it advances, the national popular vote would become the deciding factor in presidential contests and shift campaign attention away from roughly six swing states toward voters nationwide.