Pennsylvania Senate races could decide Democrats' first trifecta in 30 years

More than 6,100 state legislative seats are on the 2026 ballot

More than 6,100 seats are up for election in state legislatures this year, the chambers that make most of the laws on education, taxes, reproductive rights, crime and social media access, according to NPR. While races for Congress or governors’ mansions may dominate the airwaves, some of the most competitive and significant contests are farther down the ballot.

State governments touch daily life more than Washington does, said John Kennedy, a political science professor at West Chester University in Pennsylvania. “The fact of the matter is the day in, day out basis, state governments, state lawmakers, state governors have a greater impact on our everyday lives than what takes place in Washington D.C.,” Kennedy said.

Republicans control the legislature in 28 states, while Democrats have control of 18 legislatures. The remaining four are divided or run under power-sharing deals. The midterm ballot also includes 36 races for governor this year, according to NPR.

Both parties are sizing up their prospects, with Democrats trying to seize on the anti-incumbent mood and the low popularity of President Trump. “By taking advantage of this once-in-a-generation opportunity and environment to build power, we can capture new majorities,” the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee said in listing its target districts around the country.

The Republican State Leadership Committee acknowledged in an April strategy memo that 2026 poses “a political environment that is likely to be one of the most challenging for state Republicans in recent years.” It said it is taking a “defensive-first posture” to hold onto seats already held by the GOP.

Democrats are pouring millions of dollars into trying to flip Republican-held chambers in several states, especially Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Capturing those chambers would give some Democratic governors greater power to pass their policy priorities or let Democrats block Republican initiatives.

In Arizona, Republicans hold a four-seat majority in the state Senate and a six-seat advantage in the House of Representatives, giving Democrats a chance to take one or both chambers. If Democrats take both, and Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs wins re-election, she would have an easier time implementing blocked efforts, such as rolling back school vouchers and appointing agency leaders.

In other states, Democrats are looking to reduce Republican power or break the supermajorities that prevent Democratic governors from vetoing their bills, like in North Carolina and Kansas if Democrats hold the governor’s office there.

The potential for a party shift may be most pronounced in Pennsylvania. Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is in a constant policy battle with a split legislature, where Democrats hold a slim majority in the state House but Republicans hold a four-seat majority in the Senate. Democrats have not won a trifecta — full control of the state’s executive and legislative branches — in more than 30 years, and it could come down to the results of a few close state Senate races in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Shapiro, running for re-election, is already making a list of what he hopes to accomplish “in the first 30 days” if that happens. “We’re going to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour,” he said at a campaign rally. “I’ll tell you what else we’re going to do – we will codify abortion rights into law in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. I’ll tell you what else we’re going to do – we’re going to build more affordable housing and take on those utility companies that keep jacking up our rates here in Pennsylvania.”

While abortion is legal in Pennsylvania, Democrats want to reduce restrictions and add language that would make it clearer and less subject to judicial interpretation. Republican lawmakers have blocked those moves.

Kennedy said Shapiro would try to do a lot with a Democratic legislature. “Part of his whole image … has been he’s someone who gets things done,” he said. “And so I suspect if they have the opportunity, there’s going to be nothing short of a very ambitious agenda.”

Shapiro’s Republican challenger, State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, has accused the governor of using the divided legislature as an “excuse” for not getting things done. “The governor has consistently said … he can’t do anything because he has a divided legislature,” she said during their only public debate. “Well, that’s not what real leadership is. Real leadership — they call the leaders to the table, and you negotiate.”

In New Hampshire, Democrats hope to win a majority in the 400-member state House of Representatives, providing a check on Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is running for re-election.

The Democratic push would counter a years-long Republican strategy, Kennedy said. Republicans’ sweeping gains in the 2010 midterm cycle gave the party the power to solidify its hold through redistricting. After the rush of mid-decade congressional redistricting before the 2026 elections, some legislatures might turn toward redistricting their own chambers in the next election cycle.