Keith points to economic pain and the Iran war

On Nov. 5, Democrats were still waiting for Senate results from Alaska and Mississippi while numerous House races remained uncalled, NPR senior political correspondent Tamara Keith said. She said Democrats already knew they would control Congress in the new year, but the outstanding races would determine the size of their majorities.

If both Senate races break toward Democrats, Keith said, the party would have 54 senators plus two independents who caucus with them. She said that would provide more breathing room but still fall short of a filibuster-proof majority. Democrats had not had a Senate majority that large since they passed the Affordable Care Act early in the Obama administration, she said.

Keith said Democrats beat Republicans in districts and states where President Trump had won by double digits two years earlier. She said the House had not seen a swing toward Democrats of that scale since the post-Nixon Watergate backlash, though several close races had not been called.

The results extended to districts where the shift was particularly stark. Keith said the Nevada 2nd District race was called overnight for Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson. The district had been represented by a Republican since it was created in the early 1980s.

In Alabama, Keith said, Congressman Shomari Figures was targeted by redistricting that drew him out of his hometown. She said the Alabama district, under the lines as redrawn, would have gone to Trump by 14 points in 2024. Figures won by more than seven points.

President Trump hosted roughly 25 members of Congress from competitive races at a Rose Garden dinner earlier in the year and pledged to campaign for them. Keith said only three of those lawmakers were on pace to survive.

The Republican losses were not confined to Congress. Keith said the changes also reached governorships and statewide offices, while state legislatures flipped and Republican supermajorities broke.

Keith’s account of the electoral shift began with Trump’s 2024 victory. She said voters were upset about the economy and that Trump won after promising no new wars. She said he then focused on his personal agenda, started a new war with Iran and made economic conditions more painful for people.

Vice President JD Vance said in a social media post that the war was a problem for Republicans. He said Trump’s voters from 2024 did not stay home; they showed up and voted for Democrats.

Keith cited the AP Voter Poll as evidence of that movement, saying voters in every age group shifted toward Democrats. She said men moved 12 points and broke for Democrats overall, while Latino voters shifted 21 points back toward the party.

Keith called the election historic and said it was too early to know how historic it would prove or what it would mean.