Democrats poised for House control as midterm election results begin

Cook forecasts 15 to 25 Democratic pickups while many races remain unresolved

AP reported that Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz easily won reelection in Florida’s heavily Democratic 20th district as midterm election returns began to arrive. Polls in Indiana and Kentucky closed first, at 6 p.m. ET, with more states following on a mostly hourly basis, and polls closed across Florida at 7 p.m. ET. Florida also has several competitive House races, including contests in districts that state Republicans recently redrew in their favor.

Results in Kentucky’s sixth district were drawing close attention. Democrat Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former prosecutor, faced Republican Dr. Ralph Alvarado, whom Trump has backed, for the open seat. The Cook Political Report rated the race a toss-up despite a partisan lean toward Republicans, and a Dembo victory could indicate a big night ahead for Democrats.

Republicans held 218 House seats and Democrats held 214, with one vacancy in a Republican seat and one vacancy in a Democratic seat, and one Republican member having switched his party affiliation to independent. A majority requires at least 218 seats, placing Democrats three seats short of control. All House members run for re-election every two years, and The Guardian said Democrats were expected to make the necessary flips easily, although the eventual number of gains remained uncertain.

The forecasts offered a path well beyond the three seats needed for a majority. A prospective change in control would place Democrats in charge of House committees during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s presidency. The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan forecaster, projected that Democrats would pick up 15 to 25 seats and finish with 230 to 240. The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia listed 239 House seats in Democrats’ favor. The estimates were forecasts rather than final election returns, and the range reflected uncertainty about how many seats Democrats could gain.

The projections came after two years of Donald Trump’s second presidency, a period The Guardian described as tumultuous. Republicans were facing significant midterm headwinds, with Trump’s approval rating hitting record lows, the war in Iran remaining deeply unpopular and gas prices staying extremely high, according to The Guardian. Historically, the president’s party performs poorly in midterm elections, which are held midway through a four-year term.

The Guardian reported that Democrats were expected to take control of the House despite what it described as an unusual and aggressive Republican effort to redraw congressional districts before the election to their advantage. At Trump’s request, Republicans in Texas, Florida, Missouri and other Republican-led states redrew their districts to add more GOP-friendly ones, The Guardian reported.

The Guardian also reported that after the Supreme Court issued what it called a landmark ruling significantly weakening a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, lawmakers in Alabama, North Carolina and Tennessee redrew their maps to eliminate districts where Black voters had been able to elect a candidate of their choosing.

Despite those changes, Democrats could win in redrawn districts in Alabama and North Carolina. Some GOP-friendly districts added in Texas also appeared winnable for Democrats, and Republicans may pick up only a handful of the districts they redrawn to their advantage.

If Democrats took control, the majority would give them authority over House committees and the ability to subpoena documents and witnesses as part of investigations. That prospect would allow Democrats to conduct oversight of the Trump administration during its final two years in office.

Democrats signaled that a majority would support investigations into the Trump family business, immigration enforcement, matters related to Jeffrey Epstein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s handling of vaccine procedures and recommendations, among other issues.

Hakeem Jeffries was expected to become speaker if Democrats retook the House. The Brooklyn Democrat, first elected in 2012, was 56 and would become the first Black speaker in U.S. history.