Three of nine MPC members backed July rate rise; six voted to hold
Pill has long favored a higher level for the Bank’s key rate than his colleagues on the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee. At the July meeting, Pill and two other members voted for a rate rise; six members voted to hold.
In his Edinburgh speech, Pill argued that uncertainty about the war’s duration and intensity — and therefore the future path of energy prices — is unlikely to be resolved soon, and that the uncertainty makes waiting for clarity harder to justify.
“Even if a new ceasefire were announced tomorrow, experience suggests we would be hard-pressed to assess its effectiveness, how long it might last and what would follow its expiry,” Pill said. “Likewise for any re-escalation of the conflict.”
The U.S.–Iran war has introduced significant uncertainty into the future path of energy prices, Pill said.