Spy chiefs tell Guardian Russia may test NATO within ‘months, not years’
In the Guardian’s Tuesday briefing, the newspaper’s special correspondent for eastern Europe, Ukraine and intelligence matters, Shaun Walker, said the scale and character of Russian sabotage across Europe reminded him of material he reviewed while researching his latest book, “The Illegals,” about Russia’s deep-cover spies. In KGB archival material that Walker consulted during his research, officials referred to “the special period” — a Soviet term describing a stage between peaceful coexistence and war, characterized by plans for relentless sabotage. “It sounded a lot like where we are now,” Walker told the Guardian. Like Europe, Russia does not want direct confrontation with the West, he added, but “their risk appetite is increasing.”
The briefing was published as the UN General Assembly opened in New York, with the Guardian noting that European leaders would be seeking a united front and wary of interventions from US President Donald Trump, who has previously dismissed concerns that Russia would strike a Baltic country or other NATO member state to test the alliance’s resolve and has repeatedly criticized the alliance.
European intelligence chiefs from the Czech Republic, Latvia and Sweden, in a series of interviews Walker conducted in Prague and Riga, told the Guardian that Russia may attempt to test NATO’s resolve with an attack on European territory. One of the officials suggested such an attack could come within “months, not years”; the others framed the prospect in less specific terms. The Guardian characterized the warnings as the “starkest warnings yet” from European intelligence officers.
The intelligence chiefs spoke days after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told his parliament that intelligence assessments suggested Russia might launch an attack using drones or missiles on NATO territory in the coming months. French President Emmanuel Macron has summoned party leaders for an emergency meeting to discuss similar warnings.
Walker cautioned that the intelligence warnings should be read with care. “One thing you always have to bear in mind when reporting on intelligence is that — because the way spy agencies gain information usually remains secret — you often don’t know if a source is talking about a very specific intercept of a plan that’s almost certainly going to happen, or if it’s less concrete chatter that analysts have put together,” he told the Guardian. His assessment is that the current concerns are not at the level seen in early 2022, when American intelligence repeatedly warned Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine and had hard evidence of the Kremlin’s plans.
What did surprise Walker was his sources’ willingness to be quoted on the record. “Normally I go into these interviews assuming that we’re going to talk off the record,” he said. “All of these people were happy to be on the record, which does suggest they want to get a message out.”
The warnings accompany a documented pattern of sabotage, arson and covert operations across Europe that the Guardian said has developed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four and a half years ago, designed to seed chaos and anxiety among Ukraine’s allies while making it difficult to prove conclusively Russian involvement, as Kremlin security services pivot to recruiting local foot soldiers online. The Guardian cataloged incidents since the beginning of 2026:
Unexplained fires have damaged defense facilities supplying Ukraine in Italy, Bulgaria, Estonia and Slovakia. An explosives-laden drone was discovered next to a Ukrainian cargo plane at Germany’s Leipzig airport. Authorities in Denmark warned Russia is recruiting Danish citizens to sabotage defense firms with ties to Ukraine. In Lithuania, an Ikea store was set on fire. In France, five coffins inscribed with the words “French soldiers in Ukraine” were left under the Eiffel Tower. In the United Kingdom, the Rycroft review published in March found that online disinformation from hostile foreign states including Russia was warping political discourse. Two Russian-linked arsonists who targeted property connected to former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer were jailed in June.
Walker observed some EU politicians getting irritated with the term “hybrid war” and arguing that such direct attacks amount to more than “grey zone” activity. He summarized what he characterized as a Russian strategy: “What Russia is working to is that they know even the most hawkish people in Nato countries would really like to avoid having a direct conflict.”
European governments have become faster at publicly identifying Russian involvement but face challenges choosing effective measures. After the Leipzig incident, Germany expelled more than 150 Russian diplomats and pledged tighter border controls for Russian travelers. The Schengen free-movement zone complicates enforcement: one suspect in the Leipzig case reportedly entered Europe using an Italian tourist visa.
The European Union has expanded its sanctions blacklist to include Russian banks and energy companies, as well as entities in the United Arab Emirates, Thailand and China that help Moscow evade Western restrictions. There is also a growing willingness among EU nations to crack down on Russia’s “shadow fleet” — ships illegally carrying Russian oil and other supplies through the Baltic and North seas.
While vocal critics argue these diplomatic and economic measures don’t go far enough, others worry that even more decisive responses would risk dragging the bloc into military escalation.
For decades, politicians and analysts in the Baltic states most at risk of Russian aggression have pressed Western Europe to take the threat seriously. That mood has flipped of late, with Estonian Foreign Ministry Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov cautioning against “panic” on social media. As one source told Walker: “Baltic states prefer western Europe to see it as a chronic rather than an acute problem.” Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania remain among the strongest voices for tangible responses to Russian aggression but are aware that the vast majority of Russia’s military capability is tied up in Ukraine. They are also concerned about the impact of a narrative of “tanks rolling into Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania,” which the Guardian reported “is of course partly the point of concerted Russian psyops.”
The scale of sabotage has led prominent military voices in the UK and across Europe to suggest that the bloc is already at war — though the very definition of “at war” is now what the Guardian described as “liminal” — and that governments ought to be more transparent with their public. Asked whether Europe is already at war, Walker answered “no.” His elaboration: “There is a clear campaign from Russia, using methods that are not military, but are pretty aggressive. Some people may consider them as being something close to a war. It’s clearly absolutely nothing like the war in Ukraine.”
Walker described a domestic dilemma for European governments weighing defense spending against social programs. “If they choose to spend on defence rather than social issues, those social issues get worse and voters move to the populist right, the AfD in Germany or Le Pen in France, then you end up with leaders who are very sympathetic to Russia in power,” he said. “There is a careful path between dismissing this as a fake threat and the kind of alarmist rhetoric that we’re on the path to war and every other issue is secondary.”
In a sidebar to the briefing, the Guardian reported that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to stay in office despite heavy losses in two state elections he described as a “disaster.” The Alternative für Deutschland, which the Guardian described as having “anti-immigration” and “Kremlin-friendly” positions, won 38% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while Die Linke, described by the Guardian as “leftwing,” won Berlin. Merz has promised political change, but speculation is growing that his party could soon oust him. The Kremlin welcomed the AfD’s gains in German state polls the previous day, the Guardian reported, and Putin was described as consolidating his grip on power in tightly controlled Russian elections.