Carney says Canada prepared for 'extreme tail risk' of US military action

Carney says he still speaks frequently with Trump amid trade tensions

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told The New York Times that his administration has examined the possibility of US military action against Canada and prepared accordingly, describing the scenario as an “extreme tail risk” that warranted contingency planning.

“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told the Times. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.

Carney did not specify what the preparations entailed. His interview comes as tensions between Ottawa and Washington have escalated under US President Donald Trump.

Trump has frequently referred to Canada as the “51st state” and initiated a trade war with the country that deepened last month as the two governments began exchanging tit-for-tat tariffs on a number of products. Canada struck back with retaliatory measures of its own.

Any military conflict would be highly imbalanced by raw capability. According to figures from both governments, the US military has more than 2 million active-duty and reserve troops while Canada has less than 200,000. As of 2024, the United States possessed 65 military submarines, compared with Canada’s four.

Canada’s geography has shaped its response. The country has the longest coastline in the world and is close to the Arctic — circumstances Carney has cited in justifying increased defence spending since taking office.

Despite the disclosure of military contingency planning, Carney said he and Trump remain in frequent contact.

“From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he told the Times. “He’s direct. I’m direct in terms of where positions are. It’s much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.”

Carney said he believed a path remained to resume trade negotiations with Washington, and that returning to what he described as the amicable, decades-long trade relationship between the two countries would benefit both sides.

In the interview, Carney publicly framed the contingency planning as responsible risk management rather than a base-case scenario, characterizing it as part of the standard preparation expected of any government rather than an anticipation of imminent conflict.