Smith made Alberta's vote nonbinding after a failure to consult First Nations

Very preliminary results suggest many of Smith’s nine questions may pass

Premier Smith lowered the petition threshold needed to place the citizen-led campaign on the ballot. She also made Monday’s result nonbinding, allowing the vote to proceed around a court decision that had blocked an earlier pro-separation petition. The earlier petition had failed to consult Indigenous First Nations whose land would be affected if Alberta separated. Smith openly supported and campaigned for the unity vote and thanked voters for the result.

Earlier in the week, Smith told CBC that she would not hold an independence referendum if Albertans rejected the proposal as long as she remained premier. On Monday, she asked voters nine other questions, most seeking more autonomy from Ottawa, including on immigration. Very preliminary results reported by the BBC suggested that many might pass. Some voters who supported a second binding separation referendum said they did not seek outright independence but wanted leverage over Ottawa. Smith said the other nine questions would provide that leverage.

The BBC reported that critics viewed Smith’s decision as a “dangerous” gamble. They said the independence push was widely expected to face defeat, but proceeding still gave her restive base what it wanted. The BBC said the gamble could test her leadership of the United Conservative Party, which she has led since 2022. Jeffrey Rath, a Calgary lawyer and one of the main spokespeople for Alberta separation, said, “She’s lost the confidence of the (party) base.”

Preliminary results, with the final tally not complete, showed more than two-thirds of Alberta voters rejecting a move toward a binding independence referendum. The referendum could have strained the bonds of national unity. The BBC said the result was expected from polling but disappointing after more than a year of campaigning. Once the final count was complete, the rejection could halt separatist sentiment and push an idea discussed quietly for decades back into the political fringes, the BBC said.

Separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre, asked how he felt in one sentence, said, “Not happy.” Rath said he and others “plan to roll up our sleeves and work harder.” Keith Wilson, another separatist, told supporters in Calgary that while the vote was over, “the conversation about Alberta’s future in Canada and our place in Canada and our role in Canada will continue.” The movement’s leaders said the battle was long from over and the issue could dominate Alberta politics for years.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was raised in Alberta, celebrated the outcome almost immediately. He said in a statement that “Albertans made a clear choice.” Carney and Smith had worked together on some of the issues behind the dispute and signed an agreement envisioning a new pipeline from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific coast. Carney said his plan was to unlock Canada’s “full potential as a global energy superpower with Alberta at its core.” The BBC reported signs that Carney and Smith could face tension in the future.

Albertans who voted against an independence referendum told the BBC throughout the campaign that they wanted Canada to remain united as the country faced tariff threats from the US, its longtime ally. They also feared that an independent Alberta could be vulnerable to outside influence or even annexation.

At a pro-unity results watch party in Edmonton on Monday night, prominent pro-unity campaigner Thomas Lukaszuk said the early results made him proud to be Albertan. Speaking directly to separatists, he said “some of the issues they have raised are legitimate” and called for the hard work of healing the divisions exposed by the debate. He added, “I don’t want to see us doing another referendum like this ever again.”

The BBC said some of the rifts could not easily be smoothed over. It described “western alienation” as a term used for decades by some people in Canada’s western provinces to describe feeling ignored or overlooked by the federal government in central Canada. Independence supporters and many pro-unity voters believed Ottawa had long undermined Alberta’s oil and gas industry, most recently through environmental policies. Anger later deepened among some Albertans who viewed former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccine mandates as government overreach.

Quebec, a majority French-speaking province with similar sovereigntist sentiments, held separation referendums in 1980 and 1995, both defeated by close margins. Alberta independence supporters drew inspiration from Quebec and viewed the province as having successfully used the threat of separation to gain significantly more autonomy over provincial affairs. Although support for Quebec sovereignty had reached historic lows, a newly elected provincial government had pledged a third referendum by 2030.

Rath said, “A predominantly rural Independence Party in Quebec has just formed the government of Quebec with 28% of the vote.” He added that “It’s not out of the realm of possibility” Alberta separatists could do the same in the future.