Nebraska Democrats back Osborn as Montana Democrats divide over Bodnar
Four independent candidates are running for Senate in Idaho, South Dakota, Montana and Nebraska, all states President Trump won handily. NPR reported that President Trump’s sinking approval ratings and public frustration over affordability were buoying the campaigns, whose candidates argue they offer voters a winning case. Some Democrats are betting the independents can topple Republicans in parts of the country where the Democratic brand is hurting, as the party seeks to retake Congress. The candidates are generally unified in viewing the two-party system as toxic and blaming it for legislative intransigence, though their races differ substantially because of the role the Democratic Party has chosen to play.
Nebraska’s Democratic strategy is explicit. No Democrat is running for Senate in the state, and Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb said Democrats had high hopes for Osborn, a mechanic who got his start in politics leading a strike at the Kellogg’s plant in 2021 and raised eyebrows two years ago by coming within seven points of incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. To support Osborn, the party ran someone in its primary with the stated intention of having her drop out to clear his path. The winning candidate did withdraw, and a lawsuit then sought to force the party to replace her.
Kleeb, who is also a Democratic National Committee vice chair, said Nebraska Democrats had been conscious of the need for transparency. “We were very honest with voters,” she said. “And I think if you’re going to do this as a Democratic Party, that’s what you have to do — you have to be honest with voters, explain the strategy and make sure that Democrats support that.” She also said supporting Osborn was part of a long-term effort to repair damage to the Democratic brand in a redder state such as Nebraska. “It’s right that people have pushed back on our brand – it’s a problem. We are working on it,” Kleeb said, adding that Nebraska would eventually build a Democratic base competitive statewide.
Kleeb said Democrats hope Osborn can help them deny Republicans a Senate majority. “I’m a partisan Democrat. I believe in the Democratic Party. I also believe in building coalitions so we can win elections and then do the work of the people,” she said. “And if that means creating coalitions with independents in some of our states, then that’s exactly what we need to do.”
Osborn has been crisscrossing Nebraska on a 93-county tour, and NPR described his town halls as distinctly populist and focused on denouncing money in politics. Osborn told a group of 30 in Taylor, “We are at a turning point in our country where we have to take it back for ourselves – for the workers, for the people,” he said. “Because the powers that be — the money interests — have taken control.” In between stops in five counties on one day, Osborn said in an interview that he was running not only against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts but also against the establishment. “I’m running against the entire establishment that is stuck in this system that’s working exactly the way it’s supposed to work for them,” Osborn said. “I represent something that’s going to throw a wrench in.”
At Morgan Ranch in Burwell, Nebraska, tucked into the rolling Sandhills — described by NPR as the largest sand-dune formation in America — the 15,000-acre family-run operation has 1,000 cows and thousands of offspring. Morgan joked that his ranch has many mouths to feed, both animals and people, and said it has one of the largest privately owned Wagyu herds in the United States. His work has given him a front-row seat to what he calls the uncertainty of President Trump’s policies. “To raise a piece of meat takes me three years,” Morgan said. He described changes in the preceding two years involving costs, tariffs and reciprocal tariffs, said half his business is export and called the situation “it’s just hell.”
Morgan is a Democrat who describes himself as “a small blue dot in a sea of red” in a county and state President Trump dominated two years earlier. With no Democrat running for Senate in Nebraska, he said he was excited about Osborn. “Osborn makes the case that somebody needs to represent the working family,” Morgan said. “And he can effectively do that.”
Ricketts’s campaign has worked to persuade constituents that Osborn, an independent, is actually a Democrat. A radio ad says, “Dan’s a Democrat. Open borders, take our guns, higher taxes, that’s no fun — vote for Osborn and you’ll see, the Democrats will run D.C.” In their debate, Ricketts repeatedly called Osborn “Democrat Dan,” prompting the independent to suggest they bring out a third podium.
Sue McNeil, a lifelong Republican voter in Loup County, said she dislikes the nickname because she believes it is meant to scare people in Republican Nebraska. “I think they’re just using that ‘Democrat Dan’ to scare people, because Nebraska is a Republican state and I feel like a lot of people are a little nervous about supporting a Democrat,” she said. “But Dan Osborn is not a Democrat — he’s an independent.” McNeil said she is supporting Osborn because of frustration with the Trump administration and GOP-controlled Congress. “Why did we start the war with Iran? Our fuel prices have skyrocketed,” she said, noting she had recently paid $159 to fill her pickup. “How are we supposed to make it?”
Other conservative voters said they agree with Ricketts. “Osborn is a fraud,” said Rich Sherbeck of Ansley. “He’s not really an independent — he’s a Democrat, DSA-aligned.”
Casey Stengel, who said he always votes Republican, was curious about Osborn and came to a meet and greet at a coffee shop in Thedford. He told Osborn he was on the fence and asked him to convince him to vote for him. Osborn discussed uplifting workers and building bridges with both parties to bring about real change. After Osborn left, Stengel sighed. “Yes, there’s good ideas,” he said. “But we all know one man ain’t going to go fix the deal.”
Montana independent Seth Bodnar is a former Green Beret running for Senate. He says voters he talks to are fed up with politics as usual and that he offers a viable alternative as an independent. Speaking from the University of Montana homecoming parade, where he used to be president, Bodnar said, “When I go to Washington, D.C., I’m not going to put on a red jersey with an ‘R’ or a blue jersey with a ‘D.’ I’m going to have a jersey with an ‘M’ on it, and I’m going to work for Montana.” Osborn said he would not caucus with either party if elected, and Bodnar said the same. The current independent senators, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine, both caucus with Democrats.
Bodnar’s theory is that in a closely divided Senate, an independent willing to work with either party but beholden to neither holds significant strength. He said, “I think there is real power in an independent or multiple independents that can work together, even with people who maybe don’t leave their caucus but form an independent-minded bloc, that can move forward common sense solutions that this country so desperately needs.”
The Montana race has been marked by frustration among Democrats both with Bodnar for not running as a Democrat and with Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead for not dropping out to create a path for Bodnar. “Had Bodnar run as a Democrat, he’d be leading in this election,” said former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer. “At the end of the day, there will be a lot of people that look in the mirror and say, ‘Oh, my God, if we would have just run a Democrat without an independent, we would have won this election,’” he said. Many prominent Montana Democrats, including former Sen. Jon Tester and former Gov. Steve Bullock, endorsed Bodnar, setting up a divide between supporters of Bodnar and those backing Bankhead. University of Montana political science professor Rob Saldin said, “It’s just been really, really contentious and quite a bitter thing within the state party.”
Saldin contrasted Montana with Idaho, where Republican entrenchment is deep. He said Montana Democrats are not as “beat down” and see the election as a chance to rebuild their brand in the state. “They want somebody who, for years into the future, is going to be able to help bring money into the state Democratic Party, to help down-ballot candidates for the legislature, to be the face of the party in the state,” Saldin said. He said an independent calling for a “pox on both your houses” would not be able to do that work in the party’s trenches.
There was an effort to get Bankhead to exit the race before the August deadline. Bankhead said she and her family had been harassed and that “white gloved politicians” were subtly trying to tell her to drop out. “They were very polite. They didn’t ask me to drop out, but it was subtle — like, ‘Well, what’s the goal and what kind of job do you want down the road?’” she said, adding that she had heard from a sitting senator, a sitting governor and a former Cabinet official. “Nobody from the [Democratic National Committee] was like, ‘drop out’ but that was certainly the nudge,” she said. In an interview with Montana PBS, Bankhead claimed she was offered a DNC job if she left the race. The DNC denied that claim.
Bankhead said Democrats who want to support independents have a better way to do it. “Nebraska was very transparent, right? The Democratic nominee said they would step aside in favor of the independent if the people voted for them. And that’s very transparent — that’s great,” she said.
The two races show different Democratic responses to the independent campaigns. In Nebraska, Kleeb says a coalition with Osborn can help Democrats win, repair the brand and build a base competitive statewide, while Democrats hope Osborn can help deny Republicans a Senate majority. In Montana, Saldin worries an independent may not be positioned to perform the work of bringing money into the state party, helping down-ballot legislative candidates and serving as its public face.