Hamilton faces Marshall as Kansas Democrats seek first Senate win since 1932

Republicans target open Kansas governor seat as top pickup opportunity

Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, is challenging Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall in a Kansas race that would give Democrats their first Senate seat from the state since 1932. Marshall, who is seeking a second term, faces Hamilton in an election that also features an open governor’s contest and a full slate of federal and state offices.

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, but control of the chamber is increasingly in play as Democratic candidates have waged stronger-than-expected challenges in heavily Republican states once considered beyond their reach, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas, according to the Associated Press.

Marshall was elected in 2020 with 53% of the vote to replace longtime Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts. He faced nominal opposition in the Aug. 4 primary, receiving about 80% of the vote. Hamilton placed first in the much more crowded primary, taking about 35% of the vote against 10 other candidates.

Marshall has faced headwinds in a midterm campaign environment that historically has punished the president’s party at the ballot box, according to the AP. A majority of voters across the nation seek change in Washington, AP-NORC polling has found. The AP reported that disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of high prices and the war in Iran has put a drag on Republican candidates in key contests despite an influx of cash from deep-pocketed outside groups, including one affiliated with tech billionaire Elon Musk.

Hamilton has far outpaced Marshall in campaign fundraising, almost tripling the incumbent’s total haul and cash on hand as of Oct. 14. National Republican leaders have redirected campaign funds from the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina to boost Marshall in Kansas. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have made a combined three trips to Kansas to campaign for Marshall since the president announced his midterm campaign push in September.

The race for governor is a top pickup opportunity for Republicans, with Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly barred from seeking a third term. Kansas has voted reliably Republican in statewide federal contests, but the state also has a 60-year streak of electing governors from the opposite party of their immediate predecessors.

State Senate President Ty Masterson is the Republican nominee. He won the crowded, seven-candidate Aug. 4 primary with about 43% of the vote, aided by a Trump endorsement. The Democratic nominee is state Sen. Cindy Holscher, who was heavily outspent in the primary by fellow state Sen. Ethan Corson — who had Kelly’s endorsement — but prevailed with about 49% of the vote against Corson and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog.

In statewide elections, Republicans typically amass large wins in small, rural counties across the state, while Democrats tend to do best in Kansas City and Topeka and the surrounding areas. Trump carried Kansas in his three presidential campaigns, receiving about 57% of the Kansas vote in 2024. In their 2020 and 2024 presidential campaigns, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris each carried the same five counties, among the largest in the state — Johnson in the Kansas City suburbs, Shawnee and Douglas in the Topeka area, Kansas City-based Wyandotte, and Riley — and neither surpassed the 42% mark statewide.

Kelly’s two wins as governor, in 2018 and 2022, point to a possible path for Hamilton. In addition to the five counties that make up the state’s Democratic base, she also carried Sedgwick County in the Wichita area.

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, secretary of state, attorney general, insurance commission, state board of education, state House and a statewide ballot measure. More than 1 million votes were cast in the 2022 Senate race, and about 40% of that vote was cast early, in person or by mail.

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time — 8 p.m. ET in most of the state, which sits in the Central time zone, and 9 p.m. ET in areas on Mountain time. Mail ballots may be processed before Election Day, and tabulation may begin, but the final count may not be completed until Election Day.

Almost every Kansas county is expected to release all or almost all of its early in-person and mail-voting results in the first vote update of the night. About a third of counties also are expected to release all or almost all of their in-person Election Day results in their first updates, while more than half of counties are not expected to release any in-person Election Day results in their first update.

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported Kansas results at 8:10 p.m. ET, 10 minutes after most polls closed. The count reached the halfway point at 9:48 p.m. ET, and the last update of the night came at 3:45 a.m. ET with about 97% of the total vote counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it determines there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover newsworthy developments such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory, while making clear that it has not yet declared a winner and why. There are no automatic recounts in Kansas, but candidates may request and pay for one regardless of the vote margin; the fee is waived if the requesting candidate is declared the winner or if the margin in a general election is less than 0.5%. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome. A post-election manual audit is conducted in 1% of precincts for selected races, and in even-numbered years selected federal, statewide and legislative races are subject to an audit of 10% of precincts if the margin is within 1% of total votes cast.