ANC vote share falls under a third nationally as South African count passes 80%

ANC nearly 14 points below its 2021 result as coalition talks begin

The African National Congress is on course for a heavy defeat in South Africa’s local elections, with the once dominant party of Nelson Mandela holding 31.8% of the national vote as more than 80% of ballots were counted. The count puts the former liberation movement almost 14 percentage points below its 2021 local election result.

Election posters lined Pretoria, in Gauteng province, as South Africans went to the polls on Wednesday. The fragmented vote marks another stage in the decline of a party that has led national governments since the end of white minority apartheid rule in 1994. High unemployment, crime, corruption and poor local service delivery have all contributed to voters turning away from the ANC.

The party is projected to lose its status as the biggest party in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, the country’s two most populous provinces. Parties began coalition negotiations behind closed doors, and senior figures in key parties said they would talk with almost anyone while keeping their negotiating strategies under wraps. The final shape of coalitions in some of the country’s biggest cities remained unclear as counting continued, and final results are expected to be announced on Sunday.

The centre-right, white-led Democratic Alliance stood second nationally at 24.1% of the vote. The uMkhonto weSizwe party of the former ANC president Jacob Zuma recorded 9.3%.

Turnout rose. The election commission estimated that 54.5% of registered voters cast their ballots, up from 46% five years ago.

In Johannesburg, the commercial capital and the country’s biggest city, with 4.8 million people, voters have had to contend with regular water and power cuts, uncollected rubbish and potholes. The municipality, which has seen 10 changes of mayor in the last decade amid unstable coalitions, has admitted to a 220bn rand (£9.9bn) infrastructure spending backlog.

With just over half of the city’s votes counted, the Democratic Alliance led with 40% after an energetic campaign under Helen Zille, a 75-year-old former Cape Town mayor. The ANC, which leads the current governing coalition, stood second at 17.5%. ActionSA, a rightwing party led by Herman Mashaba, was on 15.5%.

Mashaba has pledged never to work with Zille, whom he calls “racist” — a characterization she vehemently denies.

Many of the ANC’s township strongholds have yet to report full results. The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, a respected thinktank, has projected the Democratic Alliance will finish with 34%, the ANC at 20% and ActionSA at 16.8%. Coalitions in Gauteng’s three city municipalities are often negotiated together, and the Democratic Alliance is leading in all three.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the MK party is expected to displace the ANC as the largest party. Founded in 2023 and led by the 84-year-old Zuma — who continues to weather and deny numerous corruption allegations — MK mixes socially conservative Zulu nationalism with pledges to redistribute land and wealth from white to black South Africans.

With half of the votes counted in eThekwini, the municipality that contains Durban, MK held 41%, meaning other parties could form a coalition to keep it out of power.

The Democratic Alliance is projected to maintain its majority in Cape Town, despite growing middle-class anger over rising housing costs.

Voters in the election chose a local councillor and a party, with seats allocated through proportional representation. Councillors will then have two weeks to elect mayors and form municipal governments.