Economists project October CPI at 3.9% as housing data and jobless claims arrive

Existing-home sales are expected to remain mostly unchanged from September

Next week’s schedule includes the October consumer price index on Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home sales report and the United States’ weekly unemployment claims on Thursday, and the October producer price index on Friday. SkyDance is scheduled to report earnings Monday, CoreWeave Tuesday, and Cisco and Applied Materials Thursday.

The reports arrive a week after voters across the United States gave Democrats a sweep of Congress in the midterm elections. High prices across consumer goods, including gasoline and groceries, squeeze households and businesses. The U.S. war with Iran, which began in February, slashed global oil supplies and fueled inflation that was already high amid President Donald Trump’s tariff conflict with much of the world. Economists, investors and policy makers are watching the indicators for a better sense of the continued effects of the war and tariffs on prices, housing and employment. Rising prices remain a pressure point on the broader economy, and the latest inflation updates are not expected to show that has changed, according to the Associated Press.

The housing market remains weighed down by high prices and rising interest rates. Home sales have been stagnant, the latest update on sales of previously occupied homes is expected to reflect that trend, and economists expect the National Association of Realtors’ Thursday report to be mostly unchanged from September. Sales have mostly hovered close to a 4-million annual pace going back to 2023, far short of the historic norm closer to 5.2 million, and home prices have risen on an annual basis for 39 months in a row.

The Federal Reserve’s rate path runs through that housing data. The average rate on the benchmark 30-year mortgage is hovering around its highest level in nearly three years, and mortgage rates will likely remain high as the Federal Reserve weighs another hike to its benchmark interest rate at its December meeting in an effort to cool inflation, according to the Associated Press.

On prices, Tuesday’s consumer price index for October measures price changes for a wide range of products and services, and economists project the inflation rate rising to 3.9% from 3.7% in September. The index has shown inflation rising at more than 3% since March, a month following the U.S. war with Iran and the big surge in energy prices that jolted gasoline prices and shipping costs. Friday’s producer price index for October captures inflation before it reaches consumers; the September report showed the biggest increase since December 2022, and its data showed rising fuel prices, particularly diesel fuel, continuing to push shipping and warehousing prices higher.

Energy markets have already moved ahead of the data. Crude prices plunged in the past week following the midterm elections, and the Associated Press reported that many believe Democrats, who routed President Donald Trump’s GOP, will push to end the conflict with Iran that sent energy prices soaring.

On employment, the United States is scheduled to release its weekly unemployment-claims update Thursday. The claims data serve as a proxy for layoffs, and economists monitor them because they can be a sign of where the job market is headed; the latest weekly update shows claims remaining at historically low levels. U.S. employers created 165,000 new jobs in October, and the broader job market remains resilient, though it has shown signs of stress. Wage growth has been slow and has not kept up with inflation, making the squeeze from rising prices more painful for households. Layoffs have been held largely in check, but people who lose their jobs are finding it increasingly difficult to find new work.

Notable corporate earnings will likely provide insight into the state of artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as Hollywood, according to the Associated Press. CoreWeave is scheduled to report quarterly earnings Tuesday after a week the Associated Press described as brutal in AI; the data-center company has been seen by some as more vulnerable as the costs of borrowing money rise, and its shares fell close to 20% in the past week. Cisco and Applied Materials are scheduled to report results Thursday.

SkyDance is scheduled to post earnings Monday, its first since Paramount’s studios closed on an $81 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery. The Associated Press described the deal as ushering in a new Hollywood giant.