Leganski says Trump could wield major influence over the GOP conference

McHenry expects a larger, external conversation about the direction of the Republican Party

John Leganski, a former aide to Kevin McCarthy, estimates that more than 70% of the incoming House Republican conference was elected after President Trump won his first term. Those members, he said, were largely made in Trump’s image or won because of him. “That means, Trump could wield a major influence over the direction of the House Republican conference as a result,” Leganski said.

Leganski also said the size of Democrats’ victory last week will limit leverage for Republicans under the eventual House minority leader when the new Congress is seated in January. “I think whoever wins your job is to … number one, try to win back to the House,” he said. “And number two, make life as difficult for the Democrats as possible, largely by voting no,” he added.

President Trump has stayed out of the race so far, though he endorsed Jordan during the 2023 leadership contest.

Former House Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry, who held the gavel in an acting role during the 2023 GOP speakership fight, said the contest could have implications beyond the chamber. “I think what develops here will become a larger, external conversation about the direction of the Republican Party,” he said.

Republican strategist Leslie Shedd said the candidates will need to break through a process that can be like “family-on-family violence.” She said they need to present a clear direction for the conference. “It’s really important … to lay out a very clear, substantive vision of how they plan to lead this conference out of what is now a desert,” she said.

House Republicans are scheduled to meet behind closed doors Tuesday to elect a minority leader for the next Congress, choosing between current House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Ohio Republican Jim Jordan, a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus. The secret-ballot vote comes one week after the midterm elections, in which Democrats flipped more than 40 GOP seats and won back the majority, and the winner will succeed Mike Johnson as the top House Republican. NPR called the secret-ballot election “a high-stakes decision” for the party and said the vote will help determine which way the party goes as it looks to regroup from “a staggering defeat.”

Republicans say they are ready to turn the page on their losses and start rebuilding to regain voters’ trust. But they first must choose between two candidates who, NPR said, would bring “very different styles of leadership.”

Scalise, 61, has served as the No. 2 House Republican since 2023 and has held broader GOP leadership roles for more than 10 years. NPR described Scalise as “more moderate” than Jordan and as “the close Trump ally,” and said House Republicans choosing him would be choosing “a form of continuity.” In a letter to colleagues announcing his candidacy, Scalise wrote that his approach to the job would be “conservative and consensus-driven.”

“My number one goal as Republican Leader will be to win back the majority and I expect you to hold me accountable to that mission,” Scalise wrote. “To succeed, we will need to be effective in both the oversight and legislative fights ahead, but we will also need to lay out a clear and optimistic vision for America,” he wrote. “We have big tasks ahead, and tested leadership is needed now more than ever,” he added.

Jordan, 62, is a veteran of both the House Oversight and House Judiciary committees, two panels poised to play a central role in the new Congress as Democrats plan for a long list of investigations into President Trump and his administration. NPR described the former college wrestling coach as known for a “pugilistic” style and said Jordan had pitched “an aggressive” posture to his colleagues, writing in his letter that “offense, not defense, wins elections.”

Jordan argued in his letter to colleagues that the Republican conference had operated without a clear plan for the challenges ahead. “For too long, we have operated without a clear plan to survive the hour or the day in front of us. That will not cut it against an emboldened and energetic Democratic party,” he wrote, criticizing the House leadership team led by Johnson and Scalise. “I am battle-tested on the oversight front and I know the Democrats’ playbook,” he added.

The contest is a rematch from 2023, when Jordan and Scalise competed to succeed Kevin McCarthy. After multiple candidates failed to secure enough votes, Republicans ultimately voted for Johnson. NPR described the alternatives as “a form of continuity” with Scalise and “an aggressive posture” from Jordan.

Those assessments point beyond the ballot itself. Leganski tied the conference’s direction to the members Trump shaped and said the size of Democrats’ victory will limit leverage for Republicans under the eventual House minority leader when the new Congress is seated in January; McHenry said the contest will become “a larger, external conversation about the direction of the Republican Party”; and Shedd said the candidates must offer a clear, substantive vision before the conference votes.