North Carolina swing voters want change but expect little from divided Congress

High prices top the agenda, but voters fear Democrats will prioritize investigations

North Carolina swing voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024 said in NPR’s latest focus group that they voted for change again in the midterm elections — and that they expect little of it from the result. NPR senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson, who has tracked the network’s swing-voter focus groups through the election year, discussed the findings with host Scott Detrow. The midterms, Detrow said, amounted to “a big swing toward Democrats,” producing a newly divided government in Washington.

Liasson said the focus groups, which NPR has run with swing voters in key states throughout the year, have matched the polls: the voters “were all 2024 Trump voters” and told NPR they were “very unhappy with the direction of the government, very unhappy with President Trump.” NPR identifies focus-group participants by first name only.

The appetite for change ran through the session. “So I think it’s time for some change. See what happens,” said a participant identified as Kristen. “I’m kind of with Kristen. I think everybody wants a change,” said another, Deborah. Liasson said “change” was the word heard repeatedly: “They keep on voting for change and not getting it, so they vote for change again.”

Liasson said it was clear that the main issue for these voters was high prices. They talked about Washington taking specific steps to lower prices, she said, and they want President Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran ended, if the new Congress can manage it. She cautioned that tariffs and wars are executive functions belonging to the president, which means Democrats will remain limited in what they can do to satisfy these voters.

The main takeaway, Liasson said, is that the voters “actually have low expectations that things will change, not a lot of confidence that Democrats can deliver.” She described “a lot of cynicism among our focus groups about politics,” with voters who “essentially see a kind of tit for tat unfolding between the two parties.”

One participant, Steven, said the setup means two years of inaction: “I think, realistically, it just means nothing’s going to happen for the next two years. President Trump would veto anything that comes to his desk, and the House and Senate majorities are not veto-proof, either.”

Another participant, Scott, said he does not expect compromise from the president: “I don’t expect Trump to compromise on things. It’s been very much my way or get out of my way.” Liasson said several voters described Trump as set in his ways and unwilling to compromise on anything.

The voters also raised concerns that Democrats will overreach or focus too much on investigations and not enough on the cost of living, Liasson said. Exit polling in the election showed voters connecting Trump and corruption with high prices. Democrats have said they plan to put affordability first and accountability second, she noted — but the focus-group participants are worried it will be the other way around.

Detrow reached for former President George W. Bush’s phrase about “the soft bigotry of low expectations” in pressing on the low expectations for Democrats. Liasson said the dynamic cuts both ways. Low expectations could help, because they make for an easier hurdle to clear, but they also pose a challenge: if nothing happens on prices during this Congress, it is unclear whether voters will say Trump stood in the way, agree with Democrats that the party needs the White House, or decide Republicans should be back in charge.

Liasson placed the result in a longer pattern. Elections marked by very deep, broad change have in the past laid the groundwork for a successful presidential run by the new party in power, she said — the 2006 midterms set up the 2008 Obama victory. “Historical rules only work till they stop working,” she said, but the result should set up Democrats if they can take advantage of it. “Last week, voters gave Democrats an opportunity, not a mandate,” she said.

The project has checked in with swing voters in key states throughout the year, and Liasson said the exercise is useful because “polling tells us what voters think, focus groups tell us why.” Detrow noted that nearly every recent election has felt like a change election, and that voters have often been dissatisfied with the change they got.