Hurricane Isaias strengthens to Category 3 ahead of Gulf coast landfall

FEMA workforce down 17% since fiscal year 2025

Hurricane Isaias continued to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the National Hurricane Center reported, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (169 km/h) and a projected path that would carry it ashore somewhere along the Alabama-Florida line by nightfall. The storm was moving north-northeast at 15 mph (24 km/h) and was centered about 230 miles (370 km) south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, the center said in its Friday morning advisory.

NOAA warned of “damaging hurricane-force winds” over the Florida panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi, where a hurricane warning is in effect. The agency said residents should “prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages.” Storm surge was forecast from southeast Louisiana to Suwannee in northeast Florida, with up to 15 inches (380 mm) of rain expected along the coast and the possibility of tornadoes overnight Friday into Saturday from Alabama to the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia.

The NHC said Dauphin Island, a barrier island off the Alabama coast, could see a 7-foot (2.1-meter) storm surge, while Indian Pass, 200 miles (322 km) to the east on the Florida coast, could see 6 feet (1.8 meters). “Preparations should be rushed to completion as the weather will go downhill quickly today,” the center said. “While the storm is not expected to make landfall at peak intensity, it is likely that Isaias will still be a significant hurricane when it reaches the coast.” Isaias was expected to weaken rapidly after coming ashore.

Heavy rain began falling along the coast on Friday morning, with tropical-storm conditions expected by early afternoon.

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey ordered non-residents to immediately evacuate Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, and Orange Beach on Thursday, while encouraging voluntary evacuations for residents. Videos posted to social media showed traffic at a standstill on a highway leading out of Gulf Shores, where double red flags signaled that beaches were closed. Ivey has declared a state of emergency for 40 counties in Alabama. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency in 27 counties and said 5,000 National Guard troops were expected to mobilize in Florida, where at least four school districts cancelled late-week classes. Several cities and counties in south Mississippi have also declared states of emergency.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet in 2026 because of a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over the Atlantic. Isaias is the first Atlantic hurricane of the year, forming later in the calendar than any since October 8, 1905 — a date that predates the satellite era of hurricane tracking, which began in the 1960s.

Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for almost 15% of crude oil pumped annually in the United States. The Marine Minerals Administration said about 63% of oil production in the region had been temporarily halted as of Thursday, taking nearly 1.3 million barrels a day off the market. The agency said 121 of the Gulf’s 371 crewed oil platforms had been evacuated.

The storm could also be the first major test of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s ability to deploy a large workforce after the Trump administration’s cuts and restructuring, according to emergency management experts. The administration has said it wants to eliminate or drastically downsize FEMA, shifting more of the burden to states. More than 4,300 FEMA employees left the agency in fiscal year 2025 — about 17% of the workforce — according to a recent U.S. Government Accountability Office report. Chris Currie, the GAO’s director of homeland security and justice, said the staffing reductions were not carried out systematically to ensure FEMA could still meet its statutory obligations.