Republicans defend Nebraska seats as midterm races tighten

Powell and Harding vie for Omaha’s ‘blue dot’ House seat

Nebraska, which has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, has become an unexpected front in the midterm campaign. Republicans are defending Senate, House and governor’s races in which challengers have made gains, and losing a Nebraska seat in the U.S. Senate or House could set up Republicans to lose control of Congress, according to the Associated Press.

The state’s marquee contest pairs Sen. Pete Ricketts, the Republican incumbent who took office in 2023, with Dan Osborn, an Independent and union organizer. Cindy Burbank, the Democratic nominee, dropped out of the race in July. Osborn has said he will not caucus with Democrats or Republicans, although he has received funds from Democratic donors — support that Republicans contend is evidence he would align with Democrats if elected.

Ricketts was appointed in 2023 to complete the term of Sen. Ben Sasse, who left Congress to become president of the University of Florida. The following year, Ricketts won the same seat in a special election by more than 25 percentage points, a margin that exceeded President Donald Trump’s 20-point victory in the state.

Osborn’s path to politics ran through a 77-day strike at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha, where he worked as a mechanic in 2021. He spent nearly two decades at the company and was fired after the strike, then ran for the Senate in 2024 against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer and came within 7 percentage points of unseating her.

The national environment has complicated Ricketts’ campaign. Trump’s tariffs and rising fuel prices have hit Nebraska’s agricultural and manufacturing industries, and ranchers and beef producers opposed Trump’s attempts to address soaring beef prices by importing more beef, saying it would lower their profits. Osborn has used Ricketts’ family history — he is the son of the founder of TD Ameritrade — to portray the incumbent as a political insider out of touch with Nebraskans’ concerns.

Ricketts had raised $14.5 million for his campaign as of mid-October, while Osborn had raised $11 million. Millions more in outside spending have poured into the race.

In the House race, Democrat Denise Powell is challenging Republican Omaha City Councilor Brinker Harding for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, the seat of retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate who has criticized the Trump administration over Ukraine and tariffs. The district, which includes Omaha and is sometimes called the “blue dot,” was the only one in the state to vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. In June, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Powell to its “Red to Blue” program, which supports Democratic candidates running in competitive districts.

The governor’s race has also tightened. Republican Gov. Jim Pillen, who took office in 2023, faces Democrat Lynne Walz, a former member of the state Senate. Republicans have held Nebraska’s governorship since 1999, and the competitive landscape prompted Trump to travel to the state. “When I’m on the ballot, people show up and you always win,” Trump said at an early October rally in Grand Island, appearing with Ricketts, Pillen and Flood. “Pretend I’m on the ballot, please. We gotta go and win this.”

Nebraska’s polls close at 7 p.m. MT and 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET. Alongside the Senate, House and governor’s races, voters will choose an attorney general, secretary of state, state auditor, state treasurer, Workers’ Compensation Court judge and members of the state Legislature, and will decide statewide ballot measures.

About 667,000 votes were cast in the 2022 race for governor, and about 39% of those ballots were cast early or by absentee. Most of Nebraska’s 93 counties are expected to release all or nearly all of their early and absentee results in the first vote update of the night, often before any in-person Election Day results are available. About half of counties are expected to release no or relatively few in-person results in their first report, including the most populous counties of Douglas and Lancaster.

In the 2024 election, the first results were reported at 9 p.m. ET as polls closed, the state reached 50% of votes reporting at 10:55 p.m. ET, and 90% at 3:15 a.m. ET on Nov. 6. The Associated Press does not make projections and said it will declare a winner only when it determines there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory, while making clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explaining why. Recounts are automatic in Nebraska when the margin is 1% of the total vote or less in races where more than 500 votes are cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.