Voters under 30 and Black voters back Democrats in 2026 House races

Hispanic voters and moderates shifted toward Democrats

Voters under 30 supported Democratic House candidates at a rate of about 7 in 10 in 2026, compared with about 3 in 10 for the Republican candidate. The AP Voter Poll also found about 9 in 10 Black voters and roughly two-thirds of moderates backed Democrats in their local House races. Its survey of more than 100,000 voters in all 50 states also showed majority support among Hispanic voters and those with 2025 household incomes below $50,000.

Most first-time midterm voters, who skew younger, also supported the Democratic candidate. Young and first-time voters made up fairly small shares of the electorate, limiting the numerical effect of the shift; only about 1 in 10 voters in the 2026 national electorate was under 30. About half of voters under 30 said they were “angry” about the way things were going in the country, compared with about one-third of voters ages 65 and older. About 6 in 10 voters under 30 said opposition to Trump was one reason for their House vote, compared with about half of voters ages 30 to 44 and about 4 in 10 voters ages 45 and older.

Nationally, about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters supported the Democratic candidate in their local House race, while only about one-third supported the Republican. About 4 in 10 Hispanic voters had backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election, a year in which the group shifted toward him. The AP Voter Poll said Republicans appeared to lose most, if not all, of Trump’s 2024 gains with Hispanic voters.

About 9 in 10 Black voters backed the Democratic House candidate, compared with roughly 8 in 10 who had supported Harris in 2024. Among Black men nationally, only about 1 in 10 backed the Republican House candidate, down from roughly one-quarter who supported Trump in the last presidential election, according to AP VoteCast. The comparisons indicated that Trump’s 2024 gains among Black voters, particularly Black men, did not persist.

Moderate voters also shifted toward Democrats. Roughly two-thirds supported the Democratic candidate in their local House race, an increase from approximately 6 in 10 moderate voters who had backed Harris in 2024. About 8 in 10 moderates said Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances on the presidency, and the poll found that moderate support was important to Democratic victories in several key Senate races.

More than half of voters with a 2025 household income below $50,000 supported the Democratic candidate in their local House race. Those voters had been about evenly split between Trump and Harris in 2024. About 3 in 10 U.S. voters nationally reported having a family income below $50,000 each year.

State results showed the demographic changes in closely watched contests. In Texas’s Senate race, Democrat James Talarico won over Republican Ken Paxton. The poll found roughly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters supported Talarico and about 3 in 10 supported Paxton; AP VoteCast had the group more closely split between Trump and Harris in 2024. In Florida’s Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody narrowly won reelection, but less than half of Hispanic voters supported Moody. Trump had definitively won the group two years earlier.

Younger voters shifted toward Democrats in each Senate race where the party picked up a seat, including Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton won about 7 in 10 moderate voters, a rise from the roughly half who had backed Harris in 2024. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek won about two-thirds of moderates, up from about half for Harris. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper won about three-quarters of moderates, improving on the slimmer majority that had backed Harris.

The poll also found substantial differences in support for Black candidates in two governor’s races. Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected as a governor in Georgia. About 9 in 10 Black men voted for Bottoms, compared with only about three-quarters who had supported Harris in 2024. About 9 in 10 Black women supported Bottoms, roughly the same share that had backed Harris. In Florida, Byron Donalds was elected the state’s first Black governor. About one-quarter of Black men in the state voted for Donalds over Democrat David Jolly, while only about 1 in 10 Black women supported Donalds.

Economic concerns were prominent in the poll’s findings. Most voters said inflation had caused them and their families at least “moderate” hardship over the previous year, and a similarly high share of moderates reported the same. Voters with lower incomes were more likely than those with higher incomes to express concern about the cost of food and groceries, gas prices and utilities. About 6 in 10 voters with household income below $50,000 said the cost of living was “crucial” to their vote, compared with about half of voters who earned $50,000 or more.

The AP Voter Poll was conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News and Versant. The survey blended probability-based and non-probability-based interviews with registered voters in all 50 states, conducted from Oct. 19 to Nov. 3 in Alaska and Oct. 22 to Nov. 3 in all other states. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample. A detailed methodology statement was available.