2024-26 Democratic support gains among Latinos and voters ages 18-29
President Donald Trump appointed Stephen Miller as his White House chief of staff three days after the 2026 midterms, replacing Susie Wiles. BBC News said the appointment signaled that Trump had no plans to moderate his policies or message during the final two years of his second term. BBC News reported that Miller had served as the president’s chief domestic policy adviser, was a longtime Trump aide and had spearheaded the administration’s second-term immigration agenda. A separate BBC News item reported that the White House denied that Hegseth and Rubio were leaving their jobs after the Republican election losses.
Trump had expanded the Republican base in 2024, increasing support among Latinos, voters ages 18 to 29 and other key groups, and Republicans hailed the gains as a sign of future strength for the party. Two years later, the party lost ground with nearly every critical voting bloc. According to a New York Times analysis of voter data, support for Democratic candidates among Latinos increased by 29 percentage points from 2024 to 2026. Support for Democratic candidates among voters ages 18 to 29 increased by 33 points over the same period. BBC News said the swings reflected polling ahead of the midterms that found widespread disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy, immigration and the war with Iran.
BBC News described Republicans as being in “soul-searching mode” after the coalition that powered Donald Trump to three straight presidential nominations fractured in the 2026 midterms. The defeat immediately raised questions about the party’s future as Trump entered the final two years of his second term. BBC News said there were no easy answers as Republicans faced a choice between doubling down on Trumpism or charting a new path, and it was too early to know which faction would prevail even though the intraparty battle was already underway. Republican strategists were divided over whether the party should remain centered on Trump or build a broader conservative platform. Rina Shah told BBC News the party must decide whether it will be “centred on one figure, one guy, or on a wider set of ideas like conservatism that can win outside the deepest red places.” Critics on the right, including the “Never Trumpers” who opposed Trump’s first White House campaign, were pushing for a return to the party’s pre-Trump roots and citing the historic election-night losses around the country. BBC News said the wide range of reactions on the right highlighted deep fault lines that formed around Trump’s improbable rise to the presidency in 2016 and never really went away.
BBC News said simply turning back the clock on Trump would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, because the party had been wholly transformed during Trump’s decade-long tenure. Most Republicans had shifted to the right on domestic issues such as immigration and rejected the interventionist foreign policy of the George W. Bush era that led to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Congress, BBC News said the more moderate establishment wing that disliked Trump from the start had almost entirely disappeared, replaced by conservative Trump backers who echo his nativism and populist rhetoric. BBC News said the trend continued in 2026 as John Cornyn of Texas and Susan Collins of Maine, both of whom had clashed with Trump over the years, were voted out of office.
Republicans also lost control of the House and Senate, along with governorships and state legislatures in red states such as Texas and Kansas, where Democrats had been shut out of power for decades and Trump won by double digits when he was on the ballot. BBC News said the election-night defeats included states Republicans had held comfortably for decades and described the upsets as evidence of the fickle nature of political coalitions. Outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called the midterms “close to an extinction-level event for Republicans.”
Steve Bannon, one of the architects of the Make America Great Again, or Maga, movement, predicted a “civil war” in the party after the midterms. He blamed the Republican defeat on the economy and “foreign wars,” said “I don’t think we implemented the Maga programme,” and called on Trump to double down on mass deportations. Other Republican strategists said the midterms were a wake-up call for Maga loyalists who wanted Trump’s political movement to outlast his presidency.
Republican strategist Whit Ayres said, “There’s still plenty of Maga voters out there who have supported Donald Trump through thick and thin.” He added, “But there is also a significant portion of the Republican Party that’s non-Maga, and that’s a majority now.”
BBC News said Democrats capitalized on a public perception that the Trump family and administration were rife with self-dealing and corruption. BBC News said Trump’s focus on the White House ballroom and other Washington construction projects contributed to a sense among voters that he was more focused on his legacy than on addressing affordability issues.
BBC News reported that Benjamin Shrader, leader of the Young Republicans in Austin, was still shell-shocked when he spoke to the BBC in Texas the morning after his party was almost wiped out in the state by a Democratic “blue tsunami.” Asked about Trump’s use of his first public appearance after the results to show off the White House ballroom project, Shrader said Trump remained “a force of nature.” He hesitated before adding: “I would focus on issues that are not ballrooms, that are not renaming things. I would focus on what matters.”
Vice President JD Vance had blamed the midterm results on public anger over the war with Iran and argued the party could turn around, while acknowledging the fallout would be messy. “There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why,” Vance said. In his postmortem statement on X, Vance also echoed growing calls on the right to reexamine U.S. support for Israel and signaled openness to making some immigration enforcement changes. His openness to immigration enforcement changes clashed with Miller, a Vance ally who had spearheaded the administration’s second-term immigration agenda.
BBC News said Vance’s midterm assessment combined a break with Trump over the Iran war with a call to return to “America First” and a political brand that remained popular with the Maga base. BBC News said Trump’s next moves on Iran would be watched closely by the party for their 2028 implications, and an escalation would risk fueling the concerns voiced by Vance and other “America First” proponents. BBC News also said the immediate post-election evidence suggested Republicans could benefit by distancing themselves from Trump ahead of 2028.
Party strategists said the midterm drubbing complicated Vance’s path to the Republican nomination. Ayres said: “Before this midterm, JD Vance was the odds-on favourite to win the Republican nomination in 2028. After this midterm, the nomination battle is completely wide open.” Vance’s election analysis was widely interpreted as an unofficial signal of his plans to run. The primary field was likely to be crowded.
BBC News said 2028 presidential hopefuls had some time to consider their options but would face pressure to announce White House bids in the next few months, with some potentially launching campaigns before the end of the year. BBC News described Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as contenders for the 2028 Republican nomination. It also named Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Florida Gov. DeSantis, former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie among other rumored White House contenders. In the next election cycle, Republican presidential and congressional candidates alike would face choices on U.S. support for Israel, tariffs and the AI boom.
BBC News assessed that Trump’s political power may be diminished as he entered the final two years of his second term, but that he would remain the loudest voice in the party over the next two years. It remained unclear whether Trump would become deeply involved in the nominating process or take a hands-off approach. Trump had praised Vance and Rubio at different times but typically deflected questions about whom he would like to see succeed him. BBC News said his endorsement would loom as the biggest wildcard in the 2028 Republican primary race. Ayres said, “It remains to be seen who will jump into that race,” adding, “But I think it’s going to be a lot larger and more diverse than we anticipated before the midterm election.”