Most polls show narrow Pappas advantage as heating-oil costs rise
Democratic U.S. House representative Chris Pappas entered the final week with a narrow advantage over Republican nominee John Sununu in most polls for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat. Pappas, a four-term U.S. representative, was trying not to get ahead of himself: “I take nothing for granted,” he said. “This is a very purple, competitive state. Elections are never in the bag here.” September polling that showed the candidates virtually tied rattled Democratic strategists and raised the prospect of an unexpected battleground, but the Cook Political Report moved the race in early October from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” Trump has lost New Hampshire in each of his three presidential bids, and a recent University of New Hampshire poll put his approval rating in the state at 32%. Democrats hoped the low rating would translate into voter frustration that benefited Pappas’s run.
Pappas’s closing message has focused heavily on tying Sununu to Trump. As he traveled the state in the final days, Pappas was often joined by party figures such as Arizona senator Mark Kelly and former vice-president Kamala Harris. Reuters photographs by Kylie Cooper show Pappas campaigning in New Hampshire on October 31 and at MaryAnn’s Restaurant in Derry, New Hampshire, that day. A Getty Images photograph by John Tully shows Pappas with Harris at a campaign field office in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on October 24.
“Sununu has spent most of the last year on Team Trump, and you know now that we’re getting within range of the election, he’s recognizing how unpopular the president is,” Pappas said in an interview.
Democrats believe political headwinds facing Republicans have been strengthened by rising gas prices and heating-oil costs linked to the war with Iran. More than a third of New Hampshire households rely on heating oil, and colder temperatures have pushed the issue to the forefront of voters’ minds. Veteran New Hampshire Democratic strategist Jim Demers said voters were growing angry with Republican officials. “People are now starting to get really angry,” Demers said. “I think a lot of people see Sununu as just one more Republican who will try to talk a good game, but when push comes to shove, he will not stand up to Trump because Republicans in Washington have a record of not doing it.”
Randy Marchand, a 54-year-old flight attendant from Manchester who supports Pappas while considering himself an independent, said the Republican party was ultimately a rubber stamp for the president’s agenda. “I’m afraid for our democracy … right now the Republican party is no more,” Marchand said. “They will say one thing to get in, and will ultimately come down to what Trump wants.”
Sununu has spent much of the campaign arguing that independence, not loyalty, defines his political record. He has criticized Trump’s trade war with Canada, which has affected several industries in New Hampshire, and a recent campaign advertisement claimed he had “never met” the president. In 2024, during the Republican primary campaign, Sununu voiced support for Nikki Haley in an op-ed and branded Trump a “loser.”
The candidates also disagreed about Iran in their final televised Senate debate. Pappas argued that Sununu initially backed the administration’s decision to launch strikes on Iran. Sununu countered that the congressman “exaggerates” his position and noted that he had consistently opposed putting American troops on the ground. Democrats dismissed those distinctions as largely tactical. An AP photograph by Reba Saldanha shows Pappas and Sununu debating in Manchester, New Hampshire, on October 28. The Sununu campaign did not respond to The Guardian’s request for an interview.
Sununu’s distance from the president is causing concern among some Republican operatives in the state. One New Hampshire strategist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to comment candidly on the race said voters like “local Republican control,” but that it might “be a little too much to send Trump an additional senator when the president’s numbers are just so low.” The operative said: “It’s very difficult to articulate why a Republican should win that seat.”
The operative pointed to the party’s history in New Hampshire: “The war in Iraq is what broke the back of the Republican party in New Hampshire 20 years ago,” noting that Sununu’s support for the initial authorization contributed to his failed re-election bid in 2008. “Now we have a war in Iran, and while it’s asymmetric, it is economic. That psychological toll certainly doesn’t help.”
New Hampshire’s habit of splitting tickets complicates any effort to view the Senate race solely through a national lens. The state’s congressional delegation is all-Democratic, while Republicans control the state legislature and the governor’s office. In 2024, voters backed Harris for president while electing Ayotte as governor. A Bloomberg photograph by Mel Musto via Getty Images shows voters during a primary election in Hooksett, New Hampshire, on September 8. The same kind of mixed vote is prevalent throughout the state this year.
John McAllister, a firefighter in Nashua, said he and his association were supporting Pappas while also backing Ayotte, who is leading the polls in her re-election race against Cinde Warmington. McAllister called Pappas a “true supporter” of firefighters’ issues “as long as he’s been in the House.” He said Ayotte’s pension-restoration work for public-safety employees in New Hampshire had put “thousands of dollars” back into first responders’ pockets. “We have proven time and time again to go either Republican or Democrat,” McAllister said.
Unlike many of the 2026 Senate contests, this matchup pits two deeply familiar political brands against one another. Pappas has represented the state’s first congressional district since 2019 and previously served on the executive council. His family owns the Puritan Backroom restaurant, a fixture of New Hampshire political campaigning and the alleged birthplace of the chicken tender. If Pappas wins, he would become the first openly gay man to serve in the U.S. Senate.
Sununu served in the House before winning his upper-chamber seat in 2002. He comes from one of the Granite state’s best-known political dynasties: his father and younger brother, Chris, both served as governor. The younger Sununu joked that he would be “up by 30 points” if voters thought he was running for Senate. “I love my brother but he’s totally wrong,” Sununu said. A Getty Images photograph by Sophie Park shows Sununu greeting a voter at Oktoberfest in Loudon, New Hampshire, on October 3. A Sununu victory would also make him the first Republican senator New Hampshire has sent to Washington since 2010. The Guardian characterized the national midterms as a cycle marked by insurgent and anti-establishment energy, calling New Hampshire an outlier built around two familiar names with robust records to scrutinize.
In the final televised debate, Sununu chided Pappas for his eight years in office, saying Pappas “hasn’t gotten the job done” and accusing him of siding with his party leadership too often. Pappas pointed to ways he had broken ranks when necessary and crossed the aisle, including his “yes” vote for the Laken Riley Act and his support for a congressional stock trading ban. The Republican-led Laken Riley Act requires the detention of undocumented immigrants charged with theft-related crimes. Pappas also targeted Sununu’s previous support for privatizing social security when Sununu was last in the Senate. “I’ve never voted to cut social security benefits, I never will,” Sununu said. “But Chris attacks me for introducing legislation 20 years ago that would have made the system solvent.”
The campaign has also occasionally veered into personal attacks. In September, Pappas referenced a 2010 email released as part of Justice Department files related to Jeffrey Epstein, in which the late sex offender wrote that “John Sununu has great stories” in a message to his associate Boris Nikolić. The exchange followed attacks from national Republicans mocking a photograph of Pappas on a Zoom call with his cat. Pappas responded on social media: “I have a cat, and John Sununu’s name is in the Epstein files.” It remains unclear whether Epstein was referring to the Republican nominee or his father, former governor John H Sununu. Earlier this year, Sununu’s campaign said neither man had “ever met or communicated in any way” with Epstein or Nikolić.
Some Republicans argue that Democrats are betting too heavily on antipathy toward Trump to defeat a candidate they view as genuinely independent. Kate Day, a 69-year-old retiree from Chesterfield who described herself as a fiscal conservative, said: “As someone who is a fiscal conservative … and wants to make every penny count, Sununu is a brilliant guy, and he really cares about the bottom line.” She added: “He’ll let you know if he doesn’t agree with the rest of the Republicans. I think his number one job is going to be standing up for New Hampshire, which is how it should be.”
Some Republicans also contend that voters are evaluating the race through a longer lens than the remainder of Trump’s presidency. Joe Sweeney, a state representative and deputy majority leader in New Hampshire’s Republican-controlled House of Representatives, said: “[Voters] know that this is an election for the next six years.” Sweeney added: “I think that the Democrats have been in this pattern for the last 10 years, where every other word they talk about is about President Trump.” He continued: “They have this sort of obsession with him, and I think New Hampshire voters are wiser than that.”
Some Republicans argue that Sununu would be the state’s only opportunity to elect a stronger voice to check Trump in his final years in office. David Carney, a longtime New Hampshire Republican strategist, said: “If you really want to modify what the president’s doing, you need someone in his own party fighting back, not someone who is going to be a rubber stamp,” pointing to senators such as Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Carney also acknowledged the challenge facing Sununu in a state where Trump remains deeply unpopular. “We’re not immune in New Hampshire from the national environment,” he said. “We get influenced by what we see and what we feel is happening across the country.”