Super El Niño strengthens, raising hopes for a big Western ski season

NOAA says El Niño likely to remain strong through March

El Niño causes extreme weather around the globe, bringing hurricanes, flooding and drought. This year’s “Super El Niño” could become the most powerful on record. American skiers are one group that may have reason to rejoice: the recurring weather pattern has been known to dump massive amounts of snow on the American West, and Rocky Mountain ski areas hope this year’s event delivers.

On Thursday, NOAA reported that the current El Niño continues to strengthen and will likely remain strong through March. El Niño occurs when waters in the eastern side of the Pacific become unusually warm, and scientists measure that warming to gauge how strong an event will be. “This year’s rapid early development is unprecedented,” said Philip Mote, a climate scientist at Oregon State University.

The pattern works through the high-altitude jet streams that influence weather across North America. El Niño adds energy to the subtropical jet stream, propelling it east over the U.S., where it delivers heavy precipitation to the southern part of the country. It also disrupts the polar jet stream, nudging it farther north, so less arctic air seeps into the U.S. and northern states experience milder winters.

That combination — a wetter South and a warmer North — explains much of El Niño’s impact on snowfall. In the Southwest, powerful storms typically bring snow to the California Sierras and southern Rockies. In the Northwest and Northeast, it may be too warm for significant accumulation.

Previous El Niños offer clues to how this year may play out. The powerful El Niño of 1982-83 blanketed swaths of the West in deep snow. Two other historically strong El Niños were less consistent: California saw big snows from the 1997-98 event while Colorado had a typical winter, and snowpacks were roughly average for the 2015-16 El Niño.

As the Pacific warms, hot air rising off it generates atmospheric energy that influences weather as far away as North America. While this usually means more precipitation for the U.S., it can also bring warmer temperatures that stifle snow accumulation. “In California, we could have a very wet winter in the Sierras, but it could be too warm for snow,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California. “At high elevations, I suspect that there will be snow. The question is how high that will be.”

Weather forecaster OpenSnow predicts several ski regions will see above-average snowfall this winter. The predictions reflect the strength of what’s brewing in the Pacific. Uncertainties aside, ski areas are going all-in on El Niño. Ski Utah, which represents the state’s resorts, launched a “Vote Super El Niño” campaign, including yard signs and T-shirts, to tout “the greatest snow on Earth.”

When Vail Resorts in August announced its opening dates and ski-pass options, the company noted a “Super El Niño” was building anticipation for great powder. Skiers were eagerly tracking preseason forecasts, Vail Resorts said, and praying to “Ullr, the Norse god of snow.”

Heavy snows could make up for last winter, when the Rocky Mountain region received just half its average snowfall, according to the National Ski Areas Association. Visits often rebound after a bad year, said Max Winter, a Vail Resorts spokesman. “There’s often pent-up demand for people who didn’t get a chance to ski the previous season who are excited to get out on the hill.”