More than 50 million Americans have already voted before Tuesday
With more than 50 million Americans already voted and many more ballots set for Tuesday, Election Day will pair a large Justice Department observation effort with a separate campaign by Democrats and nonpartisan watchdogs. The department is sending about 1,000 staff to observe voting and ensure federal laws are followed. Democrats and nonpartisan watchdogs have trained tens of thousands of volunteers to monitor polling places, AP reported, while government watchdog groups worry that Trump and his loyalists could interfere with the voting process on Election Day.
AP said the question of whether Trump would use the federal government’s vast resources to interfere with the election is not usually asked in U.S. politics, and that the world is watching. AP found reason to take the threat seriously based on recent rhetoric, legal action and Trump’s yearslong record of promoting what AP called “baseless claims of widespread voter fraud in elections he loses.”
AP reported that in recent days the Trump administration raised the possibility of federal intervention in Alaska after a judge rejected a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block certification of the Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan lost. Trump called the situation “voter fraud at the highest level.” The administration also tried and failed to block California from counting 20,000 ballots from people the federal government had identified as “likely” noncitizens.
Election observers are more concerned that Trump may dispatch federal immigration agents or the National Guard to intimidate voters in large Democratic precincts. The Trump administration says it has no current plans to do so. AP said the broader election-protection effort will feature hundreds of Democratic groups and government watchdogs this week.
Democrats are looking to win majorities in the House and Senate, which would curb Trump’s power after he has faced few limits from a Republican-controlled Congress. Several key governor’s offices also are up for grabs. AP said the party’s optimism reflects Trump’s low approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran, the surging price of gas and other daily necessities. History, polling and early voting numbers suggest it could be a difficult night for Trump’s Republican Party, though the political map and a fresh round of gerrymandering could limit Democratic gains.
Trump has repeatedly encouraged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot,” although his name will not appear. AP said there is reason to believe Tuesday’s midterms, above all, will be a referendum on his performance over the last two years. The Republican president is trying to defy history: in almost every modern midterm election, the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress, sometimes many. Democrats hope history holds, and they want this year to follow the rare pattern in which both chambers change hands. Since World War II, that has happened only three times — 1946, 1994 and 2006 — and each came amid an electorate seeking change or expressing broad frustration with the sitting president. AP said the 2026 electorate has both conditions, and Democrats are trying to capitalize on the opportunity. Trump is counting on his base of white working-class voters, which fueled his presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, to save Republican allies if they turn out in large numbers, but AP reported signs that Democrats were more energized.
Tuesday’s results will show, AP said, whether Trump and his coalition are still strong enough to stave off a defeat, and whether Hispanic and Black voters and younger people who swung toward Trump two years ago now reject him and his party. The answer will have huge implications for the midterms and the next presidential cycle.
Redistricting could determine how much congressional advantage either party realizes. Trump set off the latest round last year by pushing Texas, the most populous Republican-run state, to redraw congressional boundaries. California Gov. Gavin Newsom responded by persuading the state’s voters to do the same, and Democratic and Republican states followed. AP reported that the U.S. Supreme Court “gutted part of the Voting Rights Act,” allowing several Southern states to redraw districts that had been majority or near-majority Black.
On paper, the new maps suggest a net shift of nine seats toward Republicans. But the plans spread conservative supporters across more districts, and the Republican strategy in Florida and Texas especially counted on Latinos and other nonwhite voters who backed Trump in 2024. That support may not materialize, and Tuesday’s results will show whether redistricting becomes a clear Republican benefit or produces unintended political consequences.
Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a House majority, although the size of a possible swing is unclear. Republicans began the current Congress with a slim 220-215 advantage. Democrats are targeting more than 60 districts, including many where Trump won by double digits. Redistricting and the deep partisan divide between metropolitan and rural America have left fewer competitive races than in previous years when the House flipped, including 2018, when Democrats netted 40 more seats.
Early House returns could offer clues. Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is trying to hold his suburban Philadelphia seat in Pennsylvania’s 1st District. Florida’s redrawn 22nd and 25th districts were both supposed to be Republican pickups after redistricting this spring. Virginia’s 2nd District features a rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democratic former Rep. Elaine Luria, while Democrat Shannon Taylor, a local prosecutor, is challenging Republican Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st District.
The Senate is also up for grabs, with Republicans holding a 53-47 advantage. To net the four seats Democrats need for control, they must win states that Trump won; their targets include Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska. Early East Coast results could offer clues: Democrat Roy Cooper is favored to flip an open North Carolina seat, and Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is widely expected to win reelection in Georgia. If one or both outcomes do not happen, or if the margins are razor-thin, they could forecast a stronger-than-expected Republican performance elsewhere.
AP wrote that Trump’s “standing has cratered in 2026” while Democrats’ brand as a whole remains weak. That leaves the party’s major factions — the progressive left flank and the liberal-to-moderate establishment — parsing the outcomes to claim any advantage in the competition over party identity. AP identified Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed as progressives’ highest-profile candidate. A victory over Republican Mike Rogers would keep the seat in Democratic hands and give the movement a win.
AP contrasted that possibility with New York’s mayoral contest, where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is running, noting that a statewide victory by El-Sayed, a progressive, would carry different political significance because Michigan is a perennial battleground state that helped elect Trump twice. Progressives could lose leverage if their candidates are unsuccessful. Senate losses in Michigan and Minnesota — where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is defending a Democratic-held open seat against Republican Michele Tafoya — could cost Democrats control of the Senate and prompt serious finger-pointing. If Democrats of all ideological stripes won Senate, House and gubernatorial races across urban, suburban and rural voters, that result would do little to resolve the party identity debate but would all but guarantee an open presidential nominating fight.
More than 2,000 governors have served across 250 years, nearly all of them white men. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is the country’s only current Black governor and is seeking reelection. The country has never had a Black woman or a Native American woman as governor, while Texas has the largest Hispanic population of any state but has never had a Latino governor.
Moore could be joined by seven additional Black major-party nominees for governor, each seeking to become their state’s first Black governor. Georgia Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Minnesota Republican Lisa Demuth are trying to make history as Black female candidates. Michigan’s John James and Florida’s Byron Donalds are trying to become the first Black Republican men elected governor. Gina Hinojosa would make history as Texas’s first Latina governor, and New Mexico’s Deb Haaland, a former U.S. Interior Secretary, would become the first Native American woman in a state’s top job.
Taken together, Tuesday’s returns will determine which party controls Congress, affect the balance among Democrats’ internal factions and shape the next presidential cycle. AP said the answers have huge implications for the midterms, while the governor’s contests could broaden representation in state executive offices.