October Harvard Youth Poll showed a young-voter enthusiasm gap

Melat Kiros became the first Generation Z woman elected to Congress, according to NPR. The outlet included the milestone in its reporting on how younger voters powered Democratic gains in House and Senate races across the 2026 midterms.

The October Harvard Youth Poll provided a pre-election measure of engagement. Half of young Democrats said they definitely planned to vote, compared with a third of Republicans and less than a quarter of independents. NPR described the difference between the Democratic and Republican respondents as a sizable enthusiasm gap.

John Della Volpe, a left-leaning pollster who has extensively studied the politics of young Americans and runs the Harvard Youth Poll, said the midterm results underscored that neither major party owns Generation Z. “The cohort of younger people in this cycle had a different set of experiences than the cohort of people two years ago, or four years before that,” he said. “Every candidate, every party has to earn their votes.”

Della Volpe also cautioned against reading too much into a single election. “I also think we shouldn’t over read what’s happened,” he added. “Clearly a significant historic rebuke on the party in office — that’s obvious — however, I think we need to more fully, kind of understand, the contour of the electorate, who showed up and who didn’t show up.”

Exit polling showed Democrats carried Generation Z, or voters under 30, by nearly 50 points on Tuesday. NPR noted that Democrats have done well in recent elections when they win young voters by a margin of at least 20 points, a threshold the Tuesday result exceeded. The outlet described the outcome as a reversal from 2024, when Democrats lost critical ground with young people.

NPR reported that voters under 30, long seen as part of the Democratic base, shifted right toward Donald Trump in 2024, motivated by his pledge to improve their economic prospects. In 2026, NPR said the youngest voters had issued a strong rebuke of Republicans and were taking another chance on Democrats and their change-focused message at a moment when many felt the American Dream was out of reach.

Americans ages 18 to 29 have a history of lower turnout than older voters, and NPR said that pattern continued this year. Generation Z made up 11% of Tuesday’s total vote. The outlet said young Americans may have made their greatest difference on the margins, in House and Senate races where Democrats flipped seats.

The Texas Senate race was a key example, NPR said. Democrat James Talarico won the state by 12 percentage points, but his margin among Generation Z voters reached 60 points.

Democrats argued that the party’s strong slate of candidates helped generate increased enthusiasm among younger voters. NPR also identified strong opposition to Trump as a motivating factor, reporting that Generation Z grew increasingly sour on the president during his second term.

Some young voters argued that Trump had failed to deliver on core campaign promises, according to NPR. Those promises included lowering prices, repeated vows of “no new wars,” a promise to combat federal corruption and the release of the Epstein files.

Exit polling found economic issues were the top concern for a plurality of voters ages 18 to 29, at 43%. More than eight in 10 said Trump’s policies had worsened economic conditions, while similar shares opposed his tariff strategy and the decision to go to war with Iran.

Early analysis from CIRCLE indicated that 15% of young people who backed Trump in 2024 voted for a Democratic House candidate in the 2026 midterms.

NPR reported that Democrats made gains among young white men and Latino men who backed Trump two years earlier. Both groups had narrowly voted Republican in 2024 but backed Democrats by double digits on Tuesday. Democrats also narrowed their margins among young rural voters and people without college degrees. NPR said some of those gains may have been helped by young Trump voters who sat out the election, but the number doing so remained unclear.

By 2028, Generation Z and millennial voters will make up more than half of the electorate, a demographic shift NPR reported has implications for both Democrats and the GOP. Elizabeth Matto, who serves as director of the Center for Youth Political Participation at Rutgers University, said: “Young adults can make a difference. They do care about politics. They can sway the outcome of elections. And they’re a voting bloc worth paying attention to.”