Kansas affordability pressures Roger Marshall in US Senate race
In the 2026 US midterms, abuse allegations against Republican Rep. Max Miller have given Democrats hope that they might flip Ohio’s seventh congressional district. The district would not ordinarily be competitive, and Trump won it by 11 points in 2024. Miller, 37, worked on Trump’s first presidential campaign and was elected to the seat in 2022.
His ex-wife, Emily Moreno, daughter of Republican US Sen. Bernie Moreno, has alleged that Miller physically abused her and their daughter; Miller denied the allegation. Another former partner, former Trump press secretary Stephanie Grisham, has also accused Miller of physical abuse; he denied that allegation too. The claims have featured heavily in ads against Miller. Democratic challenger Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker focused on the cost of living, is running in the district.
At the start of the year, Kansas’ US Senate contest was not on the national radar as competitive, and Kansans had not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, won a crowded primary and made the race one to watch this year in a state that typically leans right. As residents struggle to afford fuel and groceries amid sustained economic instability, voters have expressed frustration with Republican incumbent Roger Marshall’s inaccessibility and his alignment with Trump.
The guide reports that Marshall, who practiced medicine for 25 years, sued hundreds of his patients over unpaid bills, resulting in the arrests of dozens of them. Hamilton frequently calls for bipartisan politics that puts Kansans first, even if that means standing up to Trump. His campaign is the guide’s test of whether a Democrat can win in red Kansas.
The Guardian characterizes the 2026 election as featuring progressives “trying to stake out new territory,” moderate Republicans “struggling in the shadow of Donald Trump,” and a host of scandals that have made races closer than they “should be.” Voters will decide whether Republicans retain control of Congress or whether Democrats rise up to block Trump’s agenda. The guide also asks whether abuse allegations or absenteeism could hurt incumbents, how important online attention is, and how Republicans can distance themselves from Trump as his popularity wanes.
Michigan and Texas draw outside spending and record fundraising
Michigan’s Senate race pits Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official on the left of the Democratic Party, against Republican former congressman Mike Rogers. El-Sayed beat a moderate member of Congress to win the Democratic nomination in a race clouded by tens of millions in outside spending; The Guardian describes the general-election contest as one of the country’s most-watched races. Michigan is a swing state: the Senate seat has been held by a Democrat for 12 years, but the state narrowly backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
El-Sayed’s tough-talk brand and simple slogan — “money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for All” — have made him a frequent target on the right, The Guardian reports. The outlet says prominent figures led by the president leaned into Islamophobic criticism of him.
The Guardian asks whether Texas could finally flip away from Republicans and whether it could produce a “theological Democrat.” Democratic nominee James Talarico, a 37-year-old state lawmaker, has drawn attention and raised record-breaking sums in his US Senate campaign. After fending off Democratic congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the primary, Talarico faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the general election.
Trump backed Paxton, who beat incumbent US Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary. The guide says Paxton has faced multiple fraud and misconduct scandals during his time in office, and that his nomination prompted Republicans to spend tens of millions of dollars defending a seat they typically win with a clear margin. Trump and his allies dubbed Talarico “Talafreako,” while Talarico has sought independent and Republican voters in the red state by appealing to their faith and speaking against corruption in politics.
Georgia, Maine, Alaska, Florida and South Carolina
Democratic US Sen. Ossoff, the youngest senator at 39, is seeking a second term in Georgia, a southern swing state where the contest should have been tight but polls suggest it will not be close. The Guardian says his political rise and speaking skills, captured in video clips designed to grab voters’ attention online, have made his reelection appear all but inevitable and fueled near-constant talk of a 2028 presidential run, often compared with Barack Obama in tone and youthfulness. Ossoff and Obama rallied together in Georgia last week. Ossoff has accused Republican congressman Mike Collins of aligning with white supremacists, a charge Collins has vehemently denied.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term after serving since 1997. The 73-year-old moderate is defending a seat Democrats have targeted as a key to retaking the Senate; Maine is a battleground state that Kamala Harris carried by a clear margin over Trump in 2024. Collins initially faced Democratic candidate Graham Platner, who dropped out after facing rape allegations. Former logger and state legislator Troy Jackson is now running against her.
Mary Peltola entered Alaska’s Senate race as one of the few prominent Democrats considered a potential threat to Republican incumbent Dan S Sullivan, hoping to capitalize on Alaska’s recent independent streak and broad anti-Trump feelings. In the final stretch, she faced allegations of mistreating staff by using slurs and shoving one aide; her campaign downplayed the behavior by attributing it to stress.
Her campaign also faced accusations of ballot stacking through the recruitment of another candidate named Dan J Sullivan to run in the state’s open primary. The New York Times reported that Peltola’s staff worked with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to add the second candidate to the ballot and draw votes away from the Republican senator. Peltola said she knew nothing of the plan, and her campaign denied recruiting candidates.
Marco Rubio’s move from the Senate to Trump’s secretary of state position in 2025 left an open Florida seat that Republican Ashley Moody filled. Moody is now seeking a full term against Angie Nixon, who won a surprise victory in the Democratic primary and whom The Guardian describes as a progressive and democratic socialist. The guide says the race is not especially competitive or likely to produce a Democratic win.
Nixon, a small business owner and state lawmaker, has drawn campaigning from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders. The Guardian says progressives hope Nixon can make the case that their candidates — and not just moderates — can have broad appeal in red states like Florida. Moody was the state’s attorney general before her Senate appointment.
South Carolina’s Senate race features Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who had minimal involvement in politics and had never run for or held public office before her appointment this year following her brother’s death. Her brother, Lindsey Graham, served the state in Washington, first in the House and then in the Senate, for decades. Darline Graham decided, after encouragement from Trump, to seek a full term and won the Republican primary. Her inexperience in office and policy has come into sharp focus, while voter frustration with political dynasties has made polls classify the typically red race as a toss-up. Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who previously ran for the US House in 2022, is running against her.
Arizona and New Jersey House races
Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, a 44-year-old Latino congressman and former gubernatorial adviser, has faced close races for his House seat in each election, narrowly beating a Democrat in 2022 and 2024 in the toss-up sixth congressional district in southern Arizona. Born in Sonora, Mexico, and raised in Tucson, Ciscomani has sought distance from Trump.
His reelection campaign is a test of whether Latinos — some of whom swung toward Trump in 2024 and helped deliver Trump’s second term — will stick with the president or side with Democrats, especially after Trump’s deportation policy. Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza, a US Marine Corps veteran, has emphasized her local roots and called out Ciscomani for largely voting with Trump’s agenda.
Rebecca Bennett’s odds of winning the toss-up New Jersey seventh congressional district increased after Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. disappeared from his public office for months. Kean, 58, was gone for more than three months from his job representing the district. He and his office declined to explain why until he returned, when he told people he had been hospitalized for depression. Before his prolonged absence, Bennett had flown under the radar.
New York Magazine put it this way: “Tom Kean Jr. needed to vanish to become interesting.” Bennett, a 39-year-old moderate Democrat and former Navy helicopter pilot and aircraft commander, hopes to win voters frustrated with Kean’s absence and Trump’s agenda. The district is known for split-ticket voting, in which voters back candidates from different parties when electing multiple offices in the same election. Bennett, a mother of two, has discussed how affordability affects her household, including the cost of childcare.
The Guardian says the candidates who teach those lessons will play into the 2028 presidential election and alter the makeup of Congress at a critical time for both parties. The outcomes could also shape public and political understanding of which approaches work and win votes in different parts of the country.