Exit polls show Democrats’ independent-voter advantage grew to 17 points in 2026

Preliminary results show a diverse coalition turning away from Trump

Exit polls showed Democrats’ advantage among independent voters expanding from 6 percentage points in 2024 to 17 points in 2026. The Wall Street Journal said preliminary results showed Hispanic voters, Black voters and white non-college-educated voters who helped return Trump to power in 2024 turned away from him as promised economic gains were consumed by the Iran war and immigration enforcement tactics were seen as too extreme for many. Democrats carved back Trump’s gains among those groups.

The Wall Street Journal said the outcome exceeded what many analysts had predicted and elevated a new class of Democratic lawmakers to power. The outlet said voters registered dissatisfaction over the Iran war, high gasoline and grocery prices, alleged government corruption and what many saw as overly aggressive immigration enforcement. Democrats took control of both chambers, though the outlet said results were still coming in.

Before midnight, The Wall Street Journal reported Democratic victories in House districts President Trump had carried by double digits two years earlier, including some that Republicans had redrawn to favor themselves. It also reported Democratic Senate wins in Texas, South Carolina and Kansas, which the newspaper described as staunchly Republican states.

Cost of living was crucial or major for roughly 9 in 10 voters

A poll of more than 79,000 registered voters, conducted for the Associated Press and all major television and cable news networks, found that roughly nine in 10 considered the cost of living a crucial or major factor in how they voted. Almost two-thirds said inflation had risen more because of Trump’s policies. Roughly six in 10 said they were very concerned about the cost of food, and a similar proportion registered the same level of worry about the price of gasoline or diesel. The Wall Street Journal said Republicans had lost their electoral advantage on the economy over the past year.

Trump had vowed to get America out of wars and promised a “golden age.” The Wall Street Journal said his decision earlier in the year to join Israel in a war against Iran proved politically disastrous, squeezing global energy markets and rippling through the economy. More than six in 10 voters said the United States had made the wrong decision to take military action there. The outlet said Trump further hurt Republicans by playing down the cost of gas while boasting about how much domestic oil producers were making. His tariffs also pushed up consumer costs, the paper said. The paper said voters did not embrace his promise of $5,000 for every adult American if Republicans held Congress.

Democrats face governing and oversight tests

Before the election, The Wall Street Journal said Democrats were expected to win the House by a comfortable margin. The paper said the expected seat cushion could give Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries breathing room to work around a handful of Democratic socialists seeking to push him to the left. Democrats took the Senate as well, an upheaval in Washington. The newspaper said Democrats now must unify around an agenda and decide how aggressively to pursue investigations into President Trump and his political allies.

The newspaper characterized the incoming setup as divided government and said it set up clashes over government funding, the Iran war, repealing tariffs and raising the debt ceiling. Majorities in both chambers give Democrats subpoena power to investigate Trump, his administration, his family and his businesses. “Lawyer up,” Rep. Robert Garcia (D., Calif.), poised to take control of the House Oversight Committee, wrote on social media on Tuesday night. Trump had entered a defensive posture, vowing to use his veto power and fight back against liberal policies, while a defiant White House said, “Buckle up.”

Florida redistricting yielded at least three Republican House losses

Republicans, led by the White House, launched a nationwide effort last year to redraw congressional districts in the party’s favor ahead of the midterms. Democrats countered with their own push and successfully made five congressional districts more favorable to Democrats in California.

Florida provided an early test of whether the Republican redistricting effort could pick up seats. Republicans had hoped to flip as many as four seats under the new boundaries, but they lost at least three of those seats in districts Trump won by 9 percentage points or more in 2024. One was too close to call in a district Trump had won by 18 points two years earlier.

Other Democratic gains included Alabama’s second district and Ohio’s first district. In North Carolina, a Republican attempt to defeat Rep. Don Davis (D., N.C.) was failing on Tuesday.

The Wall Street Journal also analyzed how Republicans allocated voters. It said that in some cases they spread their own voters too thin to pursue Democratic seats, endangering their own incumbents, including Reps. Brad Knott, Virginia Foxx, Richard Hudson and Tim Moore in North Carolina.

Trump’s campaign conduct drew criticism from Republicans

Trump once said, “I alone can fix it,” and in the run-up to the election, he took his own advice, thrusting himself into the middle of the contest. In the final month, he held daily rallies primarily in red states, but many Republicans told The Wall Street Journal that his appearances only made things worse. Candidates wanted Trump to show more empathy for voters’ economic concerns, but more often his behavior became the story.

His marathon rallies were punctuated by exaggerations, heated rhetoric and off-color remarks, including his fixation on men’s bodies. On the eve of the election, Trump held an event at the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool, speaking extensively about its overhaul and other pet projects across Washington. On Tuesday morning, he said, “Inflation is solved.” Taken together, Republicans said Trump looked increasingly out of touch with the concerns of everyday Americans. Trump told voters to act as though he were on the ballot, and they did, delivering what The Wall Street Journal called a stark admonishment of his leadership.