Virginia and Florida losses could eliminate most GOP paths to House control
The Wall Street Journal reported that over 29,000 first-time givers contributed to Abdul El-Sayed’s Democratic Senate campaign on Sunday. Those donations were included in a $2.4 million total the Journal called the campaign’s best fundraising day ever.
The total came after primary opponent Haley Stevens pulled her support for El-Sayed and endorsed Republican Mike Rogers at an event Sunday. The Journal reported that Democrats rallied around El-Sayed, backing him and condemning Stevens.
Michigan was among the states where the Journal said high-profile Senate races would help decide the majority, alongside contests in Texas and Alaska. In the hotly contested race between Rogers and El-Sayed, the paper said Stevens’s move might not work for Republicans and described the development as a November surprise.
President Trump and Republicans were fighting to maintain control of the House, Senate and presidency, while Democrats were seeking majorities in both chambers. The Journal’s assessment found Democrats strongly favored to win a House majority, although Republican leaders insisted they would maintain control. The Senate picture was hazier. To retain their majority, Republicans would need to win open seats while fending off attacks against vulnerable incumbents.
The number of voters casting ballots before Election Day can be an important sign of participation, the Journal said. As of early Monday evening, more than 57 million Americans had submitted early votes, beating the 2022 midterm’s final count by 25%, according to figures from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
The Journal also reported party-registration data from Iowa, Maine and Kansas. In Iowa, registered Democrats held a strong margin over registered Republicans in early votes as of Monday, according to the University of Florida’s data. In Maine, where incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins is fighting to hold her seat, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by around double. In Kansas, Republicans feared that price-pinched GOP voters would sit out in a close Senate race; as of Monday, registered Republican voters had submitted slightly more ballots than registered Democrats. The Journal cautioned that early voting is an imperfect measure because not all states report party registration and voters may vote against their registered party’s candidate.
Kentucky’s 6th District, located around Lexington, could provide an early barometer of the House contests, the Journal said. Republicans have held the seat in Bluegrass Country since 2013, but nominee Ralph Alvarado is trying to hold off Zach Dembo, a Democratic former federal prosecutor. Trump won the district by 15 points in 2024, and a Dembo victory could indicate that Democrats are on track to flip enough Republican-held seats to win the House.
An Indiana congressional race involving Republican Victoria Spartz and a tougher-than-expected Democratic challenger could also be instructive, the Journal said. Polls in the congressional race involving Spartz close at 6 p.m. local time.
At 7 p.m., most polls will close in Virginia and several will close in Florida, the Journal said. Both states have a number of closely watched House districts. Virginia’s 1st and 2nd districts are currently held by Republicans, but both incumbents are vulnerable. Florida’s 9th, 14th, 22nd and 25th districts were redrawn to favor Republicans, but Democrats are competitive in all four races. The Journal said losses in all of those seats would eliminate most Republican paths to maintaining a House majority.
Every four years, presidential contenders compete for support in the Iowa caucuses, and the Journal said the state could serve as a bellwether for the entire midterm election. Republicans have held the governor’s office since 2011, but Democrat Rob Sand is the favorite in that race. In the Senate contest, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former news anchor, is trying to keep a GOP-held seat against Josh Turek, a state lawmaker and former paralympic basketball player. Cook Political Report ratings considered three of Iowa’s four congressional districts up for grabs, and those races could help determine control of Congress.
More than a decade ago, Iowa was a presidential battleground state, and many voters who once voted for former President Barack Obama swung to support Trump for three elections straight. The Journal said Tuesday’s outcome could indicate whether that partisan shift was beginning to reverse.
Alaska’s Senate race features two candidates with the same name. Incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan is being challenged not only by Democrat Mary Peltola but also by a fishing-village retiree named Dan J. Sullivan. Republicans argue that the retiree could pull unwitting voters from the incumbent, though they have failed to get him off the ballot. Alaska and the Justice Department have opened investigations into whether anyone broke the law getting the second Sullivan onto the ballot. The New York Times reported in late October that there was an organized Democratic effort to recruit him. Experts said federal laws do not bar ballot stacking, but Republicans might push to deny Peltola the seat if she wins.
The Journal described the “October surprise” as a celebrated tradition in American politics: late-in-the-race news that can flip an election in unexpected ways. It said two high-profile surprises against Democrats appeared not to matter much and might even end up helping them. Republican candidate for Ohio governor Vivek Ramaswamy dropped a surprise ad against Democratic opponent Amy Acton late in October. It featured Acton’s estranged mother urging Ohioans to vote against her and calling her a liar.
The Journal said the ad might have backfired. Acton’s mother had been separated from her since childhood and stayed with Acton’s stepfather after an Ohio grand jury indicted him over allegedly abusing Acton. Democrats and many Republicans condemned the ad as inappropriate, and Ramaswamy’s campaign eventually took it down.