Paletta says Democrats likely need young independents in many races
The Wall Street Journal’s Washington coverage chief Damian Paletta wrote in his Tuesday Politics newsletter that Real Clear Politics polling averages showed Democrats leading nine of 11 close Senate races. Paletta said a stronger-than-expected Republican performance on Election Day could allow Republicans to retain their majority. He separately said low turnout among young independent voters would give the GOP an advantage.
Paletta said Republicans were leading in Florida and narrowly leading in Kansas. If Democrats won those nine races, he wrote, “If Democrats win those races, that’s it. They will control the Senate.”
Paletta then wrote: “But, slow down. Let’s look under the hood.” Aside from Georgia and New Hampshire, the Democratic leads stood at three percentage points or less. Factoring in a “margin of error” makes “anything could be possible,” he added: “So if these polling averages skew toward Democrats, and Election Day turns out stronger than expected for Republicans, well, there ya go.”
Paletta cited the 2018 midterms as a precedent. Democrats picked up 41 House seats, and Nancy Pelosi took the gavel after the election. Republicans picked up two Senate seats in the same cycle and widened their majority in the upper chamber.
He said a similar outcome could happen again if voters balked at Senate candidates Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and James Talarico in Texas while Republicans held off Democrats in other close races.
To win many of those seats, Paletta said, Democrats will likely need young independent voters who typically shy away from elections. He noted that President Donald Trump “did a great job of overperforming with this group in 2024.” Paletta also wrote that relying on unreliable voters was fraught.
According to Paletta, young independents tend to think politics is rife with corruption and to blame both parties. He wrote, “That’s a heck of a gamble by Democrats,” and said the advantage would go to Republicans if the group did not turn out in large numbers.
Separately, a newsletter item reported that Elon Musk, described as the world’s richest person, had promised to give each American child a SpaceX share.
President Donald Trump’s Tuesday schedule called for policy meetings, a 1:30 p.m. ET announcement with Vice President JD Vance and signing time at 4:30 p.m. Trump was then scheduled to depart for North Carolina and hold a midterm rally in Greenville at 7 p.m.
The edition also previewed a separate Wall Street Journal interview with seven up-and-coming congressional candidates who sat down with the newspaper before the midterm elections. All seven agreed that things needed to change on Capitol Hill, and the newspaper asked how they would fix the most pressing problems facing Congress.
A viral Saturday exchange involving Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate campaign became a highlight after an opponent handed it to the candidate, the newsletter said. At the event, a young man named Tommy asked whether El-Sayed would disavow the Muslim Brotherhood. El-Sayed said he would, then said questions like that promote bigoted ideas about Muslim Americans. El-Sayed is now posting the exchange on social media.
Trump also said he would be open to meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to discuss denuclearization. The newsletter said this followed a Journal report that Putin had proposed the three leaders meet next month to discuss Ukraine, aiming to negotiate an end to the four-year conflict on terms that would favor Moscow. Trump said a meeting about denuclearization among the three countries’ leaders would be “a very positive thing for the world.”
Paletta said he had covered Washington for 22 years as a reporter and editor, including the White House, Congress, national security, the federal budget, economics and multiple market meltdowns. The edition was curated and edited in collaboration with Alistair Dawber and Mali Michelle Fleming.